I suspect some of us ae looking past the real issue. Canadians only rarely vote FOR someone or something; most elections, since circa 1900, have been about throwing the rascals out. We have, it seems to me, "decided," en masse, that 8 to 10 years is about the max that any regime should stay in power. I suspect that the state of the economy is in second place - many, many people do "vote with their pocketbooks" and a stagnant economy is bad news for the party in power.
2023 marks eight years since Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party was elected; by 2025 when his confidence and supply agreement with the NDP expires it will be 10 years. My suspicion is that he's toast.
I think the party leaders do matter - I think Trudeau mattered and his party will find it hard to replace him because that may mean a major shift in direction. I think that IF the CPC selects Pierre Poilievre it will not mean a major shift for most party members because I also suspect that PP campaigned right for the Party leadership and will shift, fairly quickly, as did Erin O'Toole, to the middle when he is campaigning to win the National prize. As others have correctly pointed out the Conservative vote is inefficient: stronger than needed in the prairies and weaker than it would be in the big urban centres and, most importantly, in the suburbs around Vancouver and throughout South Western Ontario.
My 2¢: time is Justin Trudeau' implacable, most formidable and, very likely, unbeatable foe; it is, very simply and in the minds of most Canadian voters, time for him to go.
The Conservative leadership campaign is somewhat predictable: the progressives vs the reformers. The campaign that really matters, the national general election is FOR the broadly socially moderate, fiscally cautious, progressive voters - and they live in the suburbs and small cities all across Canada. Both the CPC and the LPC have rock solid core votes of about 20%, the NDP has, maybe 10% and the BQ has 5%. That means that 45% of Canadian voters can be persuaded to vote for any of the main parties. It means that the 50% vote share that both Diefenbaker (1958) and Mulroney (1984) earned is still achievable. The Conservatives won those tub-thumping majorities despite the fact that both Diefenbaker and Mulroney were divisive party leaders: Canadians were, in both cases, ready - beyond just ready - eager for change.
I worry less about who leads the CPC than I do about who writes the platform. The platform (manifesto) has to speak to what matters to the moderate middle of the political spectrum because they will decide the outcome.
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