Western Alienation - Split from General Election 2019

[Altair]

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/harper-catches-a-break-when-g7-discussion-on-climate-change-reduced-to-half-an-hour-isil-discussed-instead

But the leaders at the summit did take the time to draft a communique pledging to end all carbon emissions by 2100 and to hit lowered targets by 2050. And Harper’s response staked out unexpected territory for a country with huge fossil fuel reserves, stating that Canada’s energy producers must be ready to transform their industries with new technologies

It is “not just 2050 or the end of the century, but 2030, the kind of targets we are talking about will require a transformation in our energy sector,” the prime minister said.

“We should not fool ourselves. Nobody is going to start to shut down their industries or turn off the lights. We have to find a way to lower carbon emitting energy.”

So it's not just PM Trudeau saying it, PM Harper said the same as well.

 

[VinceW]

You're right. Oil will continue to be consumed for the next century. What may change are the players. Saudi oil makes a profit at 10 dollars a barrel. US fracking, at 30. Canada breaks even at 50. And that comes with a caveat. The oil Canada extracts is a heavy crude, harder to refine, and not every refinery can handle it. A lot of the oil Canada is selling to the USA now is sold at a massive discount just to make it worth it for the refinery. So if global oil doesn't rise to the 70-80 dollar range, the Alberta energy industry isn't going to be hugely profitable. And what can Canada, or even a independent Alberta do against the USA and OPEC? A majority of Canadians believe climate change is a very important issue, and 65 percent of Canadians voted for a party that advocates anything from a price on carbon to completely shutting down oil extraction today. That loony base is the majority of Canadians The market doesn't lie. There is a reason why oil companies are investing heavily in renewables and things like hydrogen extraction. The Canadian energy sector, pipelines or not, is not hugely profitable. There is too much oil in the global markets. Transmountain isn't being built to make the oil sands more profitable. Its being built to help them break even. The oil sands are selling oil at a loss in a lot of cases. Selling Canadian oil at market prices only means Canadian oil sells at 45-55 dollars a barrel, the break even point. So Canada, Alberta has two choices. Chase the past, or embrace the future. Chasing the past means crisscrossing the country with pipelines, heavily subsidizing the oil industry, trying to keep the oil industry propped up for the coming decades. Embracing the future means looking past oil. Not today, but someday. Alberta isn't going to be able to sell oil forever, same way the south couldn't sell cotton forever, same way the atlantic provinces couldn't sell cod forever, same way Quebec couldn't sell asbestos forever. I, personally, am of the belief Canada is doing a good job of balancing both right now.To summarize, until Alberta can change the fundamental economic realities, the market will take care of Alberta.

We’re not going to eliminate a large part our economy for a bunch of hypocrites who won’t even live by the standards that they won’t even support themselves.
If our oil still wasn’t in demand he wouldn’t be blocking us from building new pipelines we’ll take our chances with the world market investors will help decide if it’ll sell and not by the manmade decisions from the far left loonies in Quebec or Toronto who could care less if we live or die just to feel good about themselves at our expense.

 

[Altair]

We’re not going to eliminate a large part our economy for a bunch of hypocrites who won’t even live by the standards that they won’t even support themselves.
If our oil still wasn’t in demand he wouldn’t be blocking us from building new pipelines we’ll take our chances with the world market investors will help decide if it’ll sell and not by the manmade decisions from the far left in Quebec or Toronto who could care less if we live or die.

True. You're not going to eliminate a large part of your economy.

I will be interested in seeing how profitable the oil sands are once TMX and KXL are up and running. I'm going off of the assumption that the price of oil will remain somewhat static for the foreseeable future as the knife fight between OPEC and the USA continues until someone caves or a new normal is found. Again, with the price of oil extraction in Canada being what it is and the break even point being around 50 dollars per barrel, if the lack of pipelines is being used as a scapegoat or if there is fundamentally a bigger issue at play here.

 

[Remius]

We’re not going to eliminate a large part our economy for a bunch of hypocrites who won’t even live by the standards that they won’t even support themselves.
If our oil still wasn’t in demand he wouldn’t be blocking us from building new pipelines we’ll take our chances with the world market investors will help decide if it’ll sell and not by the manmade decisions from the far left loonies in Quebec or Toronto who could care less if we live or die just to make themselves feel good about themselves.

Nobody said that.  Did you read what Altair wrote?  Or anything else in the last posts?

Jason Kenney isn't on board with the separation thing so until you can find a party or leader that is willing to start that fight the issue is coffee shop talk.  And by the time it does happen it will likely not be in our lifetime.

 

[VinceW]

Nobody said that.  Did you read what Altair wrote?  Or anything else in the last posts?

Jason Kenney isn't on board with the separation thing so until you can find a party or leader that is willing to start that fight the issue is coffee shop talk.  And by the time it does happen it will likely not be in our lifetime.

If Kenney won’t support independence we’ll put people in who will we’ve done it before for other leaders that don’t do their jobs right.
The West went from voting federally for the PC’s to the Reform party because the former wouldn’t represent the West to the best of their abilities.

 

[Altair]

If Kenney won’t support independence we’ll put people in who will we’ve done it before for other leaders that don’t do their jobs right.

Are you going to boo O'Canada at a hockey game?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

And if the First Nations people involved object and decide to start an insurgency- then what?

Invite the US Army in to suppress it? Because that worked out so awesome in Iraq, Afahanistan and Syria?

This is what I mean- it is easy to be a keyboard warrior (not implying, at all, that you are one of those. I have just seen a lot of it the past few days.) and call for "Western Separation". Until you run up against the cold, hard realities of the situation that you are risking a very real civil war where very real people die.

I am not in any way defending the absolutely ham-fisted, incompetent and utterly destructive manner in which the Trudeau Liberals have governed for the last 4 years. However, at least this week they seem somewhat chastened by the whole affair. Perhaps Western political leaders could act like statesmen and work to get a solution. Most people outside of about 4 ridings in BC seem unhappy with how the Liberals have mishandled pipelines, too. I think a deal can be reached and the extremists on both ends of the political specturm can be cut out of the picture.

I think you would find that our FN's are far to dependent on government support to successfully fight a real insurgency, There will be some successful individuals, but the vast majority will not pick up arms and if the others are forced out of the communities they spend most of their times just surviving. In fact the FN's would be a great choice for a successful adaption of the Biggs plan used in the Malay Emergency. Also like the Malay Emergency a independent West could offer a modern alternative to the Indian Act, similar to how the British convinced the Sultans to offer land to the Chinese squatters.

 

[VinceW]

Are you going to boo O'Canada at a hockey game?

I’ll remain seated.

 

[Altair]

I’ll remain seated.

You going to spit at Canadian forces members?

(I've had that happen in Quebec)

 

[VinceW]

You going to spit at Canadian forces members?

(I've had that happen in Quebec)

Anyone who tries to prevent me from exercising my right to decide whether I want to be independent I’ll do a lot more then that.

 

[Altair]

Anyone who tries to prevent me from exercising my right to decide whether I want to be independent I’ll do a lot more then that.

Still some catching up to do to Quebec seperatists then.

Your hatred of Canada isn't deep seated enough yet.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Fluctuations in oil markets aside...

Auto industry in crisis - bailouts.

SNC-Lavalin in crisis - a "managed" outcome.

Ongoing weak opportunities in Atlantic Canada - ACOA, favourable EI rules.

What noteworthy initiatives has the federal government comparably undertaken to assist a major industry in AB, companies in AB, a temporarily weak economy in AB...?

The LPC needs many seats in QC to win; it panders to QC.  What is good for the party is divisive for the country.  The LPC doesn't need seats in AB; to the extent that any decision will be received differently by AB and ON/QC, the win goes to ON/QC.  What is good for the party is divisive for the country.

Long-term, divisive politics and poor fiscal management I'd rank as the greatest threats.

 

[Remius]

If Kenney won’t support independence we’ll put people in who will we’ve done it before for other leaders that don’t do their jobs right.
The West went from voting federally for the PC’s to the Reform party because the former wouldn’t represent the West to the best of their abilities.

Ok, so in 4 years maybe you'll have a separatist party and a leader to challenge Kenney.  Not impossible, Quebec did it, but then again they had a charismatic leader to do it.  It would be improbable that they would win and in fact you would likely fracture the right enough to allow another party in like the NDP. So maybe in 8 years and that party would have to campaign on separation and the promise of a referendum.  Keep in mind that not everyone in Alberta is a separatist and support might be thin.  Quebec has flip flopped between separatist and federalist parties for 50 years now.  and they are still here.

Everything I read from those supporting separation try to include Manitoba, Sak and BC in order to be successful.  None of which is likely to be any easier.

It's fun to talk about and I'm sure there are local LARPing militias saying they are ready when the call happens but it's still coffee shop talk. 

It would be better if you approached it from a new way of doing things like electoral reform or dropping trade barriers between provinces.  Separation though isn't going to get any real traction.

I believe Western resentment is real, a bit misplaced and a bit justified.  But yes, another Trudeau won,  We'll be doing this again in two years some stay calm and vote when the time comes.

 

[Remius]

Fluctuations in oil markets aside...

Auto industry in crisis - bailouts.

SNC-Lavalin in crisis - a "managed" outcome.

Ongoing weak opportunities in Atlantic Canada - ACOA, favourable EI rules.

What noteworthy initiatives has the federal government comparably undertaken to assist a major industry in AB, companies in AB, a temporarily weak economy in AB...?

The LPC needs many seats in QC to win; it panders to QC.  What is good for the party is divisive for the country.  The LPC doesn't need seats in AB; to the extent that any decision will be received differently by AB and ON/QC, the win goes to ON/QC.  What is good for the party is divisive for the country.

Long-term, divisive politics and poor fiscal management I'd rank as the greatest threats.

They spent 4.5 billion dollars buying the pipeline.  And 1.6 billion as an aid package.  Not saying that is right or wrong or enough just what they have done.

 

[Remius]

Anyone who tries to prevent me from exercising my right to decide whether I want to be independent I’ll do a lot more then that.

So violence?  Like blowing up mailboxes, or kidnapping and murdering a cabinet minister?  Quebec extremists tried that and it didn't exactly help win support.

 

[Altair]

Fluctuations in oil markets aside...

Auto industry in crisis - bailouts.

Lessons learned

SNC-Lavalin in crisis - a "managed" outcome.

Tried cheap political fix, blown up in face

Ongoing weak opportunities in Atlantic Canada - ACOA, favourable EI rules.

But no propping up of a fishing industries

What noteworthy initiatives has the federal government comparably undertaken to assist a major industry in AB, companies in AB, a temporarily weak economy in AB...?

Changes to EI rules, exemptions from Carbon taxes for many companies

The LPC needs many seats in QC to win; it panders to QC.

What party doesn't?

  What is good for the party is divisive for the country.  The LPC doesn't need seats in AB

Part LPC problem, part Alberta problem. While the LPC ignores Alberta, so to does the CPC take it for granted. With Alberta being safe a safe CPC province, they don't pander to it. Why bother? They are voting CPC no matter what. What Alberta has done is make themselves politically expendable

; to the extent that any decision will be received differently by AB and ON/QC, the win goes to ON/QC.  What is good for the party is divisive for the country.

Every party panders to Ontario and Quebec.

Long-term, divisive politics and poor fiscal management I'd rank as the greatest threats.

True.

 

[VinceW]

They spent 4.5 billion dollars buying the pipeline.  And 1.6 billion as an aid package.  Not saying that is right or wrong or enough just what they have done.

All that needed to be done was to punish the BC government for not abiding by the constitution whenever Provinces have not fulfilled their agreements that they’ve agreed to the Feds have withheld funding from them until they comply with what they’re supposed to do and instead of the feds doing that he took the opportunity to play politics with the situation that’s why he bought the pipeline so he could maintain political control with Albertas rights and play us and BC against each other for political gain.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Ongoing weak opportunities in Atlantic Canada - ACOA ...

The Atlantic isn't the only region that has this kind of economic development assistance - with $251,610,000 in the kitty for 2019-20, compared to ACOA's $291,260,195 for the same time frame.

Argue the difference?  Of course.  Say one has one thing the others don't have in this case, though?  Nope.

Long-term, divisive politics and poor fiscal management I'd rank as the greatest threats.

Yup.

 

[Altair]

All that needed to be done was to punish the BC government for not abiding by the constitution whenever Provinces have not fulfilled their agreements that they’ve agreed to the Feds have withheld funding from them until they comply with what they’re supposed to do and instead of the feds doing that he took the opportunity to play politics with the situation that’s why he bought the pipeline so he could maintain political control with Albertas rights and play us and BC against each other for political gain.

I would laugh if BC seperated to prevent a pipeline that helps alberta if the feds forced a pipeline down BCs throat like that.

 

[VinceW]

I would laugh if BC seperated to prevent a pipeline that helps alberta if the feds forced a pipeline down BCs throat like that.

Most BCers are in favour of the pipeline the current government is looking to be wiped out next election a lot in part because of their opposition to the pipeline.