The War in Ukraine

[KevinB]

OSINT seems to suggest that the Russians have raided their storage areas pretty hard. Can they not make new barrels?

Hard to make new barrels when most of that work force is deployed

Cant get them from China or NK or Iran?

China only sends their crap, NK I suspect has been doing the same, Iran seems to be the only true supporting actor in terms of supplying their top line equipment.

From where is Ukraine getting their replacement barrels?

For the Warsaw Pact stuff, they have been given most of the old stuff from Bulgaria, Poland, Czech, Slovakia etc that had that stuff, the NATO stuff comes in support packages from member nations.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Hard to make new barrels when most of that work force is deployed



China only sends their crap, NK I suspect has been doing the same, Iran seems to be the only true supporting actor in terms of supplying their top line equipment.


For the Warsaw Pact stuff, they have been given most of the old stuff from Bulgaria, Poland, Czech, Slovakia etc that had that stuff, the NATO stuff comes in support packages from member nations.

Have a read -

Russia Needs Fresh Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns By The Thousand.​

Russia Needs Fresh Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns By The Thousand.

Thanks to a batch of shells from North Korea, Russian forces in Ukraine are flush with artillery ammunition. What gunners don’t have in abundance are howitzer barrels.

www.forbes.com

 

[Maxman1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767499684384288901

 

[quadrapiper]

Iran seems to be the only true supporting actor in terms of supplying their top line equipment.

Is what Iran has been sending properly top line, local best effort, or the sort of cheap as chips thing they'd build to send to their proxy groups?

 

[Maxman1]

I'm pretty sure North Korea only has crap.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Blame it on the US, easiest route.

Canada's NASAMS for Ukraine delayed by US funding issues

The NASAMS air defense system, which Canada purchased for Ukraine, is currently stuck in the United States

mil.in.ua

 

[Rifleman62]

Gripen in NATO (Ukraine): Sweden's Anti-Russia Fighter​

 

[KevinB]

Is what Iran has been sending properly top line, local best effort, or the sort of cheap as chips thing they'd build to send to their proxy groups?

Russia has traded with them a lot of ICMB and Medium Range missile tech, as well as nuclear weapon tech, so the Iranians are sending their best efforts (not all obviously - but a handsome sized share).

 

[Kirkhill]

Have a read -

Russia Needs Fresh Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns By The Thousand.​

Russia Needs Fresh Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns By The Thousand.

Thanks to a batch of shells from North Korea, Russian forces in Ukraine are flush with artillery ammunition. What gunners don’t have in abundance are howitzer barrels.

www.forbes.com

With all this talk about green revolutions and the shift to arc furnaces how many old style blast furnaces are still available to produce good carbon steel from raw iron? As I understand it the electric furnaces are great for recycling existing metal. They don't work (or work well?) on ore conversion.

All those rust belt communities around the world were the bases for all that the pre-WWI arms race, the weapons of WWI, WWII and the Cold War.

That is why the Coal and Steel Community of Europe was a thing. The French and Germans didn't trust each other so they put their Coal and Steel beyond use.

 

[Eaglelord17]

With all this talk about green revolutions and the shift to arc furnaces how many old style blast furnaces are still available to produce good carbon steel from raw iron? As I understand it the electric furnaces are great for recycling existing metal. They don't work (or work well?) on ore conversion.

All those rust belt communities around the world were the bases for all that the pre-WWI arms race, the weapons of WWI, WWII and the Cold War.

That is why the Coal and Steel Community of Europe was a thing. The French and Germans didn't trust each other so they put their Coal and Steel beyond use.

A fun one is in North America there is only one facility that can produce armour plate from scratch, which is going to be going to electric arc only in the next 5 years or so.

That same facility we allowed to be bought by India in the mid 2000s and it gave that technology/recipe to India who is also now the rising leader in armour plate production.

If Hydrogen made steel works out (like what the Swedes are trying) thats the future. Otherwise electric arc is only a temporary solution as we will need to make steel from scratch using coal anyways.

Can’t set up the facilities to do that in Canada anymore (even with our much stricter environmental controls), but we are more than willing to import that type of steel from elsewhere with no environmental controls and go look at how much we are helping the environment.

We can say that about most industries though, part of the reason we did so well in WWI and WWII was the capabilities of industry in country pre-war. Unfortunately we sold off those capabilities to places like China who odds are more likely than not aren’t going to be our friend in the next major war, and maybe even our enemy. Our leaders are playing a very short sighted naive outlook on things which is all about lining their pockets.

 

[Kirkhill]

A fun one is in North America there is only one facility that can produce armour plate from scratch, which is going to be going to electric arc only in the next 5 years or so.

That same facility we allowed to be bought by India in the mid 2000s and it gave that technology/recipe to India who is also now the rising leader in armour plate production.

If Hydrogen made steel works out (like what the Swedes are trying) thats the future. Otherwise electric arc is only a temporary solution as we will need to make steel from scratch using coal anyways.

Can’t set up the facilities to do that in Canada anymore (even with our much stricter environmental controls), but we are more than willing to import that type of steel from elsewhere with no environmental controls and go look at how much we are helping the environment.

We can say that about most industries though, part of the reason we did so well in WWI and WWII was the capabilities of industry in country pre-war. Unfortunately we sold off those capabilities to places like China who odds are more likely than not aren’t going to be our friend in the next major war, and maybe even our enemy. Our leaders are playing a very short sighted naive outlook on things which is all about lining their pockets.

Yep.

Happy enough for Super Natural BC to block Alberta coal shipments while shipping BC coal to China so that China can make steel from our iron ore and sell it back to us as armour plate. For a price. If and when.

But BC is one heck of a nice place to retire.

 

[childs56]

A fun one is in North America there is only one facility that can produce armour plate from scratch, which is going to be going to electric arc only in the next 5 years or so.

Who is that?
Algoma makes various grades of plate steel in Ont including Armor spec.

Many of the IFV/APCs hull construction used in manufacturing of armor consist of Aluminum composites. The Bradley,Warrior, LAV series etc.

Can’t set up the facilities to do that in Canada anymore (even with our much stricter environmental controls), but we are more than willing to import that type of steel from elsewhere with no environmental controls and go look at how much we are helping the environment.

Push come to shove the smelters will be built and or expanded.

 

[KevinB]

A fun one is in North America there is only one facility that can produce armour plate from scratch, which is going to be going to electric arc only in the next 5 years or so.

That same facility we allowed to be bought by India in the mid 2000s and it gave that technology/recipe to India who is also now the rising leader in armour plate production.

Or should have been if they didn't use impure crap.

If Hydrogen made steel works out (like what the Swedes are trying) thats the future. Otherwise electric arc is only a temporary solution as we will need to make steel from scratch using coal anyways.

Can’t set up the facilities to do that in Canada anymore (even with our much stricter environmental controls), but we are more than willing to import that type of steel from elsewhere with no environmental controls and go look at how much we are helping the environment.

We can say that about most industries though, part of the reason we did so well in WWI and WWII was the capabilities of industry in country pre-war. Unfortunately we sold off those capabilities to places like China who odds are more likely than not aren’t going to be our friend in the next major war, and maybe even our enemy. Our leaders are playing a very short sighted naive outlook on things which is all about lining their pockets.

Yup...

Pentagon announces a surprise $300 million weapons package for Ukraine

The new package is made possible by savings the department found in other contracts but isn't a reliable tool to fund Ukraine going forward, officials say.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Kirkhill]

We can say that about most industries though, part of the reason we did so well in WWI and WWII was the capabilities of industry in country pre-war. Unfortunately we sold off those capabilities to places like China who odds are more likely than not aren’t going to be our friend in the next major war, and maybe even our enemy. Our leaders are playing a very short sighted naive outlook on things which is all about lining their pockets.

Further to...

I think the highlighted bit is kind of the point though. In WWI and WWII we worked with the capabilities available. Now we have different capabilities available. We need to figure out how to work with what we have.

That was the true genius of the ministers of industry and supply in those wars. They couldn't build howitzers fast enough so they built mortars instead. Those took a lot of load off the field artillery. Wooden aircraft from piano makers. Submachine guns from the local machine shop. Explosives and soap from your left over soup bones....etc

 

[Eaglelord17]

Who is that?
Algoma makes various grades of plate steel in Ont including Armor spec.

Many of the IFV/APCs hull construction used in manufacturing of armor consist of Aluminum composites. The Bradley,Warrior, LAV series etc.

Push come to shove the smelters will be built and or expanded.

Algomas the one.

Further to...

I think the highlighted bit is kind of the point though. In WWI and WWII we worked with the capabilities available. Now we have different capabilities available. We need to figure out how to work with what we have.

That was the true genius of the ministers of industry and supply in those wars. They couldn't build howitzers fast enough so they built mortars instead. Those took a lot of load off the field artillery. Wooden aircraft from piano makers. Submachine guns from the local machine shop. Explosives and soap from your left over soup bones....etc

That being said they could do that because the factories, tooling, and skilled tradespeople already existed in country. Not nearly as many factories or skilled tradespeople in country as there was then.

You can convert different processes to get different results but you at the minimum need a baseline. Its difficult to start from scratch when you need something today and not 5 years from now. Even then when all the tooling and equipment is manufactured outside your country your stuck with whatever they offer you on their timelines.

 

[Kirkhill]

Algomas the one.

That being said they could do that because the factories, tooling, and skilled tradespeople already existed in country. Not nearly as many factories or skilled tradespeople in country as there was then.

You can convert different processes to get different results but you at the minimum need a baseline. Its difficult to start from scratch when you need something today and not 5 years from now. Even then when all the tooling and equipment is manufactured outside your country your stuck with whatever they offer you on their timelines.

Agreed.

I think that is why the Ukrainians are going with silicon chips, 3-D printers and drones to transport lethal payloads. Nobody, not them, not the Europeans, us or the US, not even the Russians have the capacity for mass production of the WWII suite of weapons. I question whether even the Chinese could manufacture quality arms in mass quantities. I have seen nothing to suggest that any Chinese product could be considered a quality product, in any field. They suffer from the same problem the Soviets used to. Lying.

Drones have moved from the expedient IED in the hands of terrorists, through mass production by their state supporters, particularly Iran, and have been picked up by the Israelis, Azeris, Turks and Ukrainians. Now the Eastern Europeans, Koreans and Taiwanese are seriously invested. The Brits seem to be getting on the wagon through their Thales Belfast operation.

How fast can you print a 70mm rocket and stick a cell phone on it?

 

[lenaitch]

Algomas the one.

That being said they could do that because the factories, tooling, and skilled tradespeople already existed in country. Not nearly as many factories or skilled tradespeople in country as there was then.

You can convert different processes to get different results but you at the minimum need a baseline. Its difficult to start from scratch when you need something today and not 5 years from now. Even then when all the tooling and equipment is manufactured outside your country your stuck with whatever they offer you on their timelines.

Yup. If you have facilities and skills for heavy manufacturing, converting them to wartime production is relatively easy. Developing either or both of those is a long-term prospect. Much like the days prairie farm boys turned into sailors overnight, assembly lines of hand-filling shells or forming plywood aircraft are long gone.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Push come to shove the smelters will be built and or expanded.

That would have to be one hell of a push, perhaps by an occupying power who has run out of room and that’s about it.
We are on a path to being out of the defence products business and people don’t seem to accept that.
The CSC will be the death knell of “made in Canada at any cost”.

 

[childs56]

That would have to be one hell of a push, perhaps by an occupying power who has run out of room and that’s about it.
We are on a path to being out of the defence products business and people don’t seem to accept that.
The CSC will be the death knell of “made in Canada at any cost”.

I disagree, We have many smaller companies that provide critical specialized services to the larger defense companies. Although the small companies eventually get bought up. It still proves that we have the capability to do so.

As for Irving/ Seaspan crapping the bed on manufacturing a viably priced vessel. That has more to do with all the political aspects of financial and career kickbacks then actual process.
The government needs to buy out the ship yards and lease them to the companies. Then give the contract out to the best bidder. Higher those who want a job. Not those with political connections.

Canada cannot be competitive if we keep allowing a company such as Irving to walk all over us. The cost of building the ships is out to lunch. The cost of maintaining them similar.
Look at the fiasco on the west coast with the Frigate upgrades for New Zealand, what should have been a good long term contract turned into a fiasco of stupidity.
To many Canadian companies have not been responsible because they are the only major players in a field. So the government both provincial and federal bail them out. So they do not need to be competitive, only need to threaten to close up shop and loose jobs. Then government comes with the purse strings open.

Algomas the one.

That being said they could do that because the factories, tooling, and skilled tradespeople already existed in country. Not nearly as many factories or skilled tradespeople in country as there was then.

You would be surprised how many skilled trades people there are across the country. Lots of smaller specialized shops building specific parts. If they all grouped together it would be pretty significant.
The real issue we are going to have in the next 10-20 years are all those hands on skilled people are going to be retired or passed on. That will leave a gap like we have not seen in our life times.

Lets not forget CNC has allowed us to machine and build more with less people.
I have seen a few shops transition an entire floor of machinists and go with cnc machines. (most were retiring and or they found other jobs for their people) but the transition has been on going for many years.
Don't kid ourselves there are still lots of skilled Trades people across Canada working in manufacturing.

 

[Kirkhill]

Further to doing the other thing - a militarized cell phone that could be attached to a printed rocket to guide it to the target

M1156 Precision Guidance Kit - $13,500

The Mystery of the M1156 Artillery Precision Guidance Kit

Cheap and effective, it’s being supplied to Ukraine but it gets little mention in the media

medium.com

70 mm rocket plus a SAL guidance kit - $30,000

Modified Legacy 70 mm Rocket Becomes Drone Killer - Armada International

A rocket design first employed in the 1940’s as an aerial launched weapon has been adapted to engage unmanned aerial drones.

www.armadainternational.com

STRIX is fired like a conventional mortar round. The round contains an infrared imaging sensor that it uses to guide itself onto any tank or armoured fighting vehicle in the vicinity where it lands. The seeker is designed to ignore targets that are already burning.

In 2020 U.S. dollars, the Strix projectile reportedly maintains a unit price of $23,940. Design Features. A precision-guided 120mm mortar projectile optimized for employment against explosive reactive armor (ERA). Launch/Carrier Platform.

IR seekers, of the type applied to the 120mm Strix use wavelengths of 0.75 -1 mm.
mmW seekers, of the type applied to the 81mm Merlin mortar round and Brimstone use wavelengths of 1-10 mm.
DAMASK was a 2001 prototype IR kit that could be strapped on to any bomb or missile.

The system is called Damask, an acronym for direct attack munition affordable seeker. Each system is expected to cost $12,700, said Michael Dietchman, director of strike technology at the Office of Naval Research. Each JDAM guided bomb costs about $20,000.

And in the wings - Anti-Jam versions.

BAE Systems' Long Range Precision Guidance Kit (LR-PGK) with GPS anti-jam technology

Precision Munitions | Precision Guidance Kits

Our precision munitions technology improves the reliability of precision strike functions in GPS jammed environments. Discover our precision guidance kits.

www.baesystems.com

....

My take away. Any round of any velocity can be guided precisely to its target by bolting on a guidance kit with a price point of about $20,000.

If 80% of the rounds are diverted/fail 20% of them will succeed. The price per kill - $100,000. Comparable to the price of a single Javelin but with longer range.