The War in Ukraine

[QV]

Don't worry, we've successfully convinced ourselves that Russians are simply drunks who fight with shovels and steal washing machines for computer chips.... they've run out of missiles at least four dozen times since February 2022.

This is the part that bothered me from the beginning.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The problem with the people issue is Zelensky's part refuses to pass the mobilization law. They are more worried about the optics and politics then national survival. They have made some 1300 amendments in the Rada to the bill. Doesn't matter how much ammo we get them, or money, they need troops and lowering the draft from 27 to 25 would unlock about 1.4 million potential man power or more according to a few people I'm country I talk to.

Here's the question - if they do this - do they have the resources to house, feed, train, clothe, arm, pay and finally, 'use' all of these men?

 

[MilEME09]

Here's the question - if they do this - do they have the resources to house, feed, train, clothe, arm, pay and finally, 'use' all of these men?

Pay? Not when they are giving ridiculously high pay outs to the families of the dead. By comparison and adjusting for the cost of living etc. The average family receives a pay out 4 times what a US family would recieve in death benefits.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Pay? Not when they are giving ridiculously high pay outs to the families of the dead. By comparison and adjusting for the cost of living etc. The average family receives a pay out 4 times what a US family would recieve in death benefits.

I'd say 2 things on this - 4 times greater chance of being killed in the Ukrainian army than the US - the Ukrainians are acutely aware that their nations very survival is on the line and are willing to pay accordingly.

 

[MilEME09]

I'd say 2 things on this - 4 times greater chance of being killed in the Ukrainian army than the US - the Ukrainians are acutely aware that their nations very survival is on the line and are willing to pay accordingly.

in a sense I agree, but when it is an immediate pay out and eating up half the budget, something needs to be done, national survival needs money for ammunition, these pay outs will be for nothing if you cant win

 

[YZT580]

in a sense I agree, but when it is an immediate pay out and eating up half the budget, something needs to be done, national survival needs money for ammunition, these pay outs will be for nothing if you cant win

they have lots of credit with many of the countries including our own but there aren't any bullets to buy except maybe from N. Korea. Switzerland can't constitutionally sell, Israel is using all they can get. Our factories can't produce the numbers they need so dollar figures are irrelevant. What they need are what they have been asking for: planes and missiles and air defense systems. They have a thousand mile front and systems for what maybe half that at most. The F16s should have been there two years ago and putting targeting range restrictions on legitimate military infrastructure is just plain insanity. Shades of Viet Nam. Israel is killing thousands in Gaza partially because they were hamstrung years ago over the same thing: targeting.

 

[TacticalTea]

they have lots of credit with many of the countries including our own but there aren't any bullets to buy except maybe from N. Korea. Switzerland can't constitutionally sell, Israel is using all they can get. Our factories can't produce the numbers they need so dollar figures are irrelevant. What they need are what they have been asking for: planes and missiles and air defense systems. They have a thousand mile front and systems for what maybe half that at most. The F16s should have been there two years ago and putting targeting range restrictions on legitimate military infrastructure is just plain insanity. Shades of Viet Nam. Israel is killing thousands in Gaza partially because they were hamstrung years ago over the same thing: targeting.

Liberal West deluding itself.

Ukraine will win if all hold hands and chant kumbaya together!

Not so.

Sadly, history proved @Humphrey Bogart right. Mostly, in my estimation, because the West proved frustratingly unwilling - or worst, unable - to do what was necessary.

 

[RangerRay]

I don’t know about that. Many countries in “The West” have been more than willing to support Ukraine way beyond their size (The Baltics, Scandinavia, the UK, Poland, Czechia, and, for a time, the US). Unfortunately the overwhelming largest contributor, the US, has decided to play silly bugger and first play “Mother may I”, and then let themselves get politically paralyzed by a faction that has fallen into the thrall of Russian agitprop.

Many in “The West” are trying. Unfortunately it’s the largest western power that’s falling down.

 

[Kirkhill]

I don’t know about that. Many countries in “The West” have been more than willing to support Ukraine way beyond their size (The Baltics, Scandinavia, the UK, Poland, Czechia, and, for a time, the US). Unfortunately the overwhelming largest contributor, the US, has decided to play silly bugger and first play “Mother may I”, and then let themselves get politically paralyzed by a faction that has fallen into the thrall of Russian agitprop.

Many in “The West” are trying. Unfortunately it’s the largest western power that’s falling down.

Personalities matter - This Western effort started with Boris Johnson backing Zelensky, the Poles, the Balts, Finns, Swedes and the rest of the Scandinavians.

At the time Biden was musing about how much was too much.

Biden predicts Russia ‘will move in’ to Ukraine, but says ‘minor incursion’ may prompt discussion over consequences​

President Joe Biden on Wednesday predicted Russia “will move in” to Ukraine, citing existential concerns by the country’s president, Vladimir Putin, even as he acknowledged disunity within NATO over how to respond to a “minor incursion.”

The candid assessment laid bare the struggle Biden faces in creating meaningful consequences and deterrents for Moscow, which remains closely intertwined economically with the United States’ top European partners.

The remark elicited near-immediate outcry in Kyiv, where officials have been meeting with Biden’s top diplomat as Russian troops amass on the country’s border. High-level attempts to clean-up the comment soon followed at the White House.

As long it is just the tip...

 

[Kilted]

So, I'm not sure if this has been discussed in another thread, but there may be significant influences here. Now that Trump has essentially won the Republican nomination, and is currently ahead of Biden in many polls, do we think that we could see a much more desperate Ukrainian spring offensive this year?

 

[Cloud Cover]

Looks like the Reds bagged a HIMARS sitting beside a tree line. Possibly the first HIMARS lost in the conflict.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765062402062598542

 

[Furniture]

Looks like the Reds bagged a HIMARS sitting beside a tree line. Possibly the first HIMARS lost in the conflict.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765062402062598542

Likely happened a long time ago, the terrain doesn't look very March-like to me.

 

[daftandbarmy]

You can run but you can't hide...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765431873390399664

 

[Cloud Cover]

I had to watch this a few times to make sure what i saw was real…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765521658310181029

 

[Dana381]

they have lots of credit with many of the countries including our own but there aren't any bullets to buy except maybe from N. Korea. Switzerland can't constitutionally sell, Israel is using all they can get. Our factories can't produce the numbers they need so dollar figures are irrelevant. What they need are what they have been asking for: planes and missiles and air defense systems. They have a thousand mile front and systems for what maybe half that at most. The F16s should have been there two years ago and putting targeting range restrictions on legitimate military infrastructure is just plain insanity. Shades of Viet Nam. Israel is killing thousands in Gaza partially because they were hamstrung years ago over the same thing: targeting.

January 2022 article from a nameless author said we (Canada) were supposed to help Ukraine build a factory for ammunition. Does anyone know? Did that ever materialize?

 

[Skysix]

A video from Ukrainian GUR that appears to show multipole hits on the Russian patrol boat.

Lots of planning

 

[quadrapiper]

Yes how clearly selfish of me not to think of them.

Admittedly I have a better idea.
Little green men from NATO have a coup in Kallingrad, Transnitia and Belarus.
Then we move V Corps into Belarus when asked to by the new democratic administration, and have NATO 350km from Moscow…

Has anyone asked Moldova if, perhaps, they'd like V Corps as houseguests

Many in “The West” are trying. Unfortunately it’s the largest western power that’s falling down.

And the one that, if I understand things correctly, was positioned in a NATO context to be the mass-producing distant arsenal of democracy, as the continental Europeans would be too busy.

 

[QV]

So, I'm not sure if this has been discussed in another thread, but there may be significant influences here. Now that Trump has essentially won the Republican nomination, and is currently ahead of Biden in many polls, do we think that we could see a much more desperate Ukrainian spring offensive this year?

That take doesn't match history. Considering Russia didn't move on Ukraine while Trump was in office, but did so while Obama and Biden were... it would be more logical to suspect a more desperate Russia trying to solidify gains ahead of a Trump POTUS fearful that a change in administration would change the game for them. They know where Biden is at and Ukraine will lose without a change in the west.

 

[FJAG]

They know where Biden is the Republicans' Johnson and Trump are at and Ukraine will lose without a them in charge in the west.

FTFY

 

[KevinB]

That take doesn't match history. Considering Russia didn't move on Ukraine while Trump was in office, but did so while Obama and Biden were... it would be more logical to suspect a more desperate Russia trying to solidify gains ahead of a Trump POTUS fearful that a change in administration would change the game for them. They know where Biden is at and Ukraine will lose without a change in the west.

Who is scuttling the Ukrainian Assistance in the US? Oh yeah MAGA fucksticks.