The Geopolitics of it all

[Kirkhill]

Immigration at record levels - UK and Australia
House prices driven skywards - UK and Australia
Green regulations driving house prices skywards - UK
Bankers blissfully ignorant - UK
Health services struggling - UK
Recruiting problems - UK and Germany
Protests - UK

The same Good Idea Fairies seem to flit ubiquitously. The same experiments, the same policies, seem to be broadly trialled with broadly the same results. A little more independent action might be in order.

‘Where am I going to live?’ – How immigration affects Australia’s housing crisis

Rising rents and house prices mirror Britain’s struggles – but Canberra has a plan

www.telegraph.co.uk

Eco-fanaticism may soon destroy all that makes Britain beautiful

Our country has a long and proud history of preserving ancient buildings. But they could soon be ruined by green technology

www.telegraph.co.uk

It’s worrying how ignorant NatWest’s chairman is of the difficulties facing young buyers

Tired and inaccurate thinking dismisses the real economic issues in modern society

www.telegraph.co.uk

Labour created the cult of the NHS. Now it is desperate to tear it down

Amid more strikes, it is the Opposition’s responsibility to find a pathway for reform - otherwise disaster awaits

www.telegraph.co.uk

Navy has so few sailors it has to decommission ships

New frigates unable to be manned unless two existing warships are taken out of service

www.telegraph.co.uk

German army uses flexible working to attract Gen Z soldiers

Flashy adverts and plans for conscription are just a few of the initiatives being considered to combat declining numbers

www.telegraph.co.uk

Western civilisation is being destroyed from within by forces we can’t control

The horrifying truth about woke ideology has finally been revealed. It gives open support to genocide

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[GR66]

Washingtonian realists and Wilsonian neo-conservatives.

Jackson often gets the credit for the isolationism attributed to Trump. But Washington was the first to counsel against foreign entanglements.



Revisiting a left-wing review of US history 20 years later.

The Folly of Empire, 20 Years Later - The American Spectator | USA News and PoliticsThe American Spectator | USA News and Politics

Twenty years ago, John B. Judis wrote The Folly of Empire, which traced the intellectual origins of America’s post–Cold War foreign policies

spectator.org

There are constant threads, not just through American history.

The isolationist/interventionalist balance is a very tricky one to navigate. Too isolationist and you don't have the soft (or hard) power to check challenges until you face a major conflict in order to defend your interests. Too interventionalist and you get stuck expending your blood and treasure in areas that are not in your core national interest.

Like anything in politics it's not one or the other. It's a spectrum and the sweet spot on that spectrum will move depending on the particular circumstances of the day (both internally and externally).

 

[Kirkhill]

Immigration at record levels - UK and Australia
House prices driven skywards - UK and Australia
Green regulations driving house prices skywards - UK
Bankers blissfully ignorant - UK
Health services struggling - UK
Recruiting problems - UK and Germany
Protests - UK

The same Good Idea Fairies seem to flit ubiquitously. The same experiments, the same policies, seem to be broadly trialled with broadly the same results. A little more independent action might be in order.

‘Where am I going to live?’ – How immigration affects Australia’s housing crisis

Rising rents and house prices mirror Britain’s struggles – but Canberra has a plan

www.telegraph.co.uk

Eco-fanaticism may soon destroy all that makes Britain beautiful

Our country has a long and proud history of preserving ancient buildings. But they could soon be ruined by green technology

www.telegraph.co.uk

It’s worrying how ignorant NatWest’s chairman is of the difficulties facing young buyers

Tired and inaccurate thinking dismisses the real economic issues in modern society

www.telegraph.co.uk

Labour created the cult of the NHS. Now it is desperate to tear it down

Amid more strikes, it is the Opposition’s responsibility to find a pathway for reform - otherwise disaster awaits

www.telegraph.co.uk

Navy has so few sailors it has to decommission ships

New frigates unable to be manned unless two existing warships are taken out of service

www.telegraph.co.uk

German army uses flexible working to attract Gen Z soldiers

Flashy adverts and plans for conscription are just a few of the initiatives being considered to combat declining numbers

www.telegraph.co.uk

Western civilisation is being destroyed from within by forces we can’t control

The horrifying truth about woke ideology has finally been revealed. It gives open support to genocide

www.telegraph.co.uk

Ireland

Ireland’s pro-immigration elites are driving the country to the brink​

As the costs of mass migration become clear and tensions soar, Irish elites are attempting to silence dissent
MICHAEL MURPHY11 January 2024 • 12:47pm


Pro-immigration elites have turned Ireland into a powder keg. The fuse was lit last November when riots broke out in Dublin after three young children and a woman were stabbed by a man of Algerian origin. Angry locals took to the streets. Buses were set alight, shops were looted and police were viciously attacked, in an outpouring of violence unlike anything the city has seen in modern times. Since then, a migrant hotel in Galway and a planned homeless shelter in Dublin have been put to the torch – and Irish politicians and media have been quick to finger “far-right” hooligans as the villains of the story.
But the same people now hand wringing about right-wing extremism have themselves been busily heaping gunpowder into the barrel. Ireland has in recent years opened its doors to enormous numbers of immigrants – more than 140,000 arrived in the year ending April 2023, contributing to growth of almost two per cent in its population.
The new arrivals needed to be housed in a country which has a shortfall of 250,000 homes, and other public services stretched thin. Those questioning the wisdom of this risk being labelled racist or far-right, or censored. And once Ireland’s draconian hate speech laws are passed through the Dáil, it is possible that doubters can expect to be arrested.
This is the undesirable lot of Ryan Casey. He is the boyfriend of Ashling Murphy, a 23-year-old schoolteacher, who was stabbed 11 times in the neck last year while she was out jogging near Tullamore, in County Offaly. Mr Casey said in a statement after the sentencing of his girlfriend’s murderer (a 33-year-old man of Slovakian extraction) that he was sickened that “someone can come to this country, be fully supported in terms of social housing, social welfare, and free medical care for over 10 years…never hold down a legitimate job, and never once contribute to society in any way shape or form” before committing “such a horrendous evil act of incomprehensible violence”.
This was sufficient to cast Mr Casey as a hero of Ireland’s “far-right” in the eyes of liberal elites.. It is unsurprising, then, that Mr Casey’s remarks were omitted in much of the Irish media’s reporting. When asked about this on teh BBC, Irish Times journalist Kitty Holland said she thought this decision was “right” as the remarks were “incitement to hatred”, and that it would not be “helpful” to share them. When Ireland’s hate speech laws – which would elicit blushes from even the old Catholic church censors – are rolled out, it isn’t inconceivable that they could even be illegal.

Teacherly censoriousness of his kind has prevented Ireland from having a grown-up conversation about its immigration policy. There are upsides to immigration, which politicians are happy to discuss. But there are downsides, too, which can be far-reaching and intractable. Not all immigrants arrive with a spirit of gratitude and munificence toward their host country – as we in Britain, and much of western Europe, have learned at great cost.
Whether the Irish public agree with their governing class that this can all be set aside is another matter. A recent poll found that 75 per cent of Irish voters thought Ireland had taken in “too many” refugees. The Irish government has now belatedly accepted this, framing it entirely as a “capacity” problem.
There is undoubtedly a dearth of homes and services. Many of the newcomers have been bussed to towns and cities across the country, often at night, where they have been put up in hotels and other spaces. Some have pitched tents because there is not enough room to house them all. There are countless stories of locals first encountering their new neighbours, loitering with nothing to do and nowhere to go, on their morning commute.
But housing is not the be-all and end-all. Communities are also composed of a shared sense of history, culture and values. Mr Casey alluded to this when he said: “I feel like this country is no longer the country that Ashling and I grew up in and has officially lost its innocence when a crime of this magnitude can be perpetrated in broad daylight.”
Ireland’s pro-immigration elites in the media and government take pride in the country’s membership of the European community. But they have chosen to ignore the signal lessons that that community has to offer on immigration. By opening the doors to mass-immigration, and censoring debate around its pitfalls, Europe is now wracked with imported social ills and the far-right is in the ascent across the continent.
Ireland is starting to see the downsides of immigration. Will it now follow in the footsteps of the European continent and cede the debate to the far-right, giving them a monopoly on speaking uncomfortable truths?

 

[Kirkhill]

Sensing a change in the breeze at Davos?

Something unexpected happened at Davos this year. The conventional wisdom took some tentative steps toward the right.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/davos-turns-gently-to-the-right-elites-grasp-statism-fails-and-the-world-needs-america-9033dd20?mod=opinion_lead_pos10

Wall Street opposition to Trump collapses, as 'pipe dream' of primary defeat ends

Executives on Wall Street have no plans to try to stop Donald Trump as he surges to the Republican nomination.

www.cnbc.com

Business is starting to think more about ROI than DEI

American companies are changing their approach to diversity and inclusion

www.ft.com

The Davos consensus is finally cracking

The bulk of reports percolating out of the WEF’s annual meeting have been scornful, revealing a proposed programme of enlightened elite global governance that is not going as planned. Geopolitics is back with a vengeance; the “energy transition” has turned out, so far, mostly to mean unilateral...

unherd.com

“It’s painful for me to admit this, but Wall Street is basically nonchalant to this election,” longtime Wall Street executive and former Trump communications director Anthony Scaramucci said in a recent interview with The Hill.

“I think they view Donald Trump by and large as benign to somewhat beneficial to the economy and business,” he added.

“I think unless there is some catastrophic crisis like the [Jan. 6, 2021] insurrection, they think of themselves as stewards of other people’s money and they don’t want to take a position that divides their workforce, their investors and their customers. They are mindful of their different constituencies,” said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a senior associate dean at the Yale School of Management.

“They are not out there to be political ward heelers. They are not out there doing door-to-door campaign solicitations. They are there to run their companies,”

A shift in tone​

Among the powerful financial leaders who have declined to criticize Trump as he rose in the polls was JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, known as the king of Wall Street.
“I would never say that. He might be the president, I might have to deal with that,” Dimon said in November, when asked whether he belonged to the so-called never Trump movement.
At the time, Dimon urged business leaders to support Haley. In response, Trump ripped Dimon on social media.
Fast forward six weeks and Dimon was mum on Haley, and instead appeared to be making Trump’s case for reelection for him.
“Take a step back, be honest. He was kind of right about NATO, kind of right on immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Trade, tax reform worked. He was right about some of China,” Dimon said in a CNBC interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
“I will be prepared for both [Trump and Biden administrations], we will deal with both, my company will survive and thrive in both,” he added.

There were no marches for Adam Smith or posters of Milton Friedman at Davos this year, but the applause for the combative defense of free markets by Argentina’s new libertarian President Javier Milei was more than polite. Citing the contrast between ages of stagnation and the miracle of accelerating progress in the modern era, Mr. Milei reminded his audience that “far from being the cause of our problems, free-trade capitalism as an economic system is the only instrument we have to end hunger, poverty and extreme poverty across our planet.”

His words resonated because, as one heard in panel after panel, the empirical foundations of the fashionable statist view appear to be crumbling. For now at least, the China miracle seems to be over.

Anti-EU parties forecast to win European Parliament elections in nine member states

Pollsters predict a strong showing for the populist ‘radical Right’ in June’s vote, which could weaken support for Ukraine and net zero

www.telegraph.co.uk

Xi plots emergency intervention to shore up China’s crumbling stock market

The Chinese president is under pressure to restore investor confidence amid an economic downturn

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Kirkhill]

Europe’s greatest legacies to the world – capitalism, individual liberty, the rule of law and the “Western, Educated, Industrialised, Rich, and Democratic” (or “weird”) values so brilliantly described by Joseph Henrich of Harvard University – will live on in the US. But there is no way back for a European continent that has embraced nihilism, post-Christian paganism, illiberalism and the politics of envy, that believes that saving the planet requires shutting down successful industries and impoverishing its people, that cannot face down Islamist extremism and anti-Semitism, and that won’t reform its welfare state.

Europe is finished, condemned to death by its deluded, third-rate elites

Europe's greatest legacies to the world....

Therein lies the heart of the matterr.

Capitalism, individual liberty, the rule of law... none of those were European legacies. They were British legacies. British legacies that found homes in America as well as Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

Europe spent centuries opposing individual liberty and two centuries opposing capitalism. The prospect of freedom of conscience, speech, religion and association was anathema in Europe. The only places where those ideas gained sufficient traction as to become government policy were under the Union Jack and its rebellious offspring.

Europe, Europe's elites, fought the enlightenment tooth and nail. In 1944 they saw their world speared. But that didn't change them. They absorbed the shock, healed the wound and reformed with new brands, new colours and new names. But they retained their positions and their philosophies.

Europe was never liberal. Europe was never democratic.

 

[FJAG]

Europe was never liberal. Europe was never democratic.

I think that you're being a bit unfair here. Sure, the Brits murdered a king in 1649 and set off this whole parliament thing but you then have the same ages of religious warfare and internecine struggle followed by a system of rotten boroughs and flawed democracy. Europe may have carried on with kings and Napoleon etc for a few more centuries but eventually they got there.

Then there's that whole undemocratic empire stuff that's part of Britain's legacy. Throw in the American revolution for good measure and pretty soon its a toss up as to whether Britain or Europe were the nastier.

Sometimes the problem with enlightenment is getting it started. Sometimes the problem with enlightenment is getting it to stop at the right point.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Britain managed to hold onto the bones of increasing political improvements going back to the thirteenth century; many major European countries basically turned everything upside down once or twice each in the last quarter millenium.

 

[RangerRay]

The Oil War - Diane Francis

“Shadow fleets” of tankers smuggle oil out of Russia and Iran and provide the cash flow to finance their wars and terrorist attacks. These ships are also environmental time bombs. Several have sunk with their toxic cargos because they were in disrepair, operated by scoundrels, or unable to call for help because they were hiding from authorities. Despite dangers, illicit oil shipments and sanctions-busting activities have exploded. In 2023, China and India imported $600-billion in fossil fuels from Russia, essentially bankrolling Putin’s war in Ukraine and billions from Iran despite draconian sanctions. Estimates are that one in five ships on the high seas are now involved in illicit oil or weapons trade. And these operators also work with accomplices in countries that are so-called allies, such as India, Greece, Spain, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Cargos are carried by ships without identities, owned by shell companies, and hired by shadowy traders who defy detection and interdiction. Choking this flow should be a top priority because it fuels warmongering, but instead a global industry has mushroomed, enriching many along the way. The New York Times commented that Russia has “turned a Western boycott into a bonanza”.

 

[Kirkhill]

I think that you're being a bit unfair here. Sure, the Brits murdered a king in 1649 and set off this whole parliament thing but you then have the same ages of religious warfare and internecine struggle followed by a system of rotten boroughs and flawed democracy. Europe may have carried on with kings and Napoleon etc for a few more centuries but eventually they got there.

Then there's that whole undemocratic empire stuff that's part of Britain's legacy. Throw in the American revolution for good measure and pretty soon its a toss up as to whether Britain or Europe were the nastier.

Sometimes the problem with enlightenment is getting it started. Sometimes the problem with enlightenment is getting it to stop at the right point.

There were liberal minded people on the Continent. No argument there.

But.

Feudalism was the default mode up until 1944. Wherever liberalism broke out prior to that there was always a counter-revolution.

The key distinction between the Continent and the Brits was not the degree of nastiness. It was what is referred to these days as the cult of individualism. Some of us call it liberty. Unabridged and unadulterated.

The Continental view always starts with limitations. Individual rights are bound by state imposed responsibilities.

 

[Kirkhill]

Inflation and who bears the cost -

Wages still too high to hit inflation target, warns Bailey​

The Governor of the Bank of England has said wages remain too high for inflation to come down sustainably to the institution’s 2pc target.
Andrew Bailey said the question of whether people should still exercise pay restraint this year was “important” as policymakers voted to hold interest rates at 16-year highs of 5.25pc.
While inflation has fallen significantly from highs of 11.1pc to 4pc in December, he warned that services inflation, which stands at 6.4pc, remains persistent.
Answering a question from Telegraph economics editor Szu Ping Chan, Mr Bailey said he was not going to “preach at this point” following controversy last year after he suggested people should not ask for pay rises to help bring down inflation.
He said: “We have now seen the AWE - the average weekly earnings index - come down. It has come down more than we expected.
“Those numbers are still high by historical standards and high by any level that is consistent with meeting sustained inflation target.”

Wages still too high to hit inflation target, warns Bailey - watch live

US Inflation is Global Inflation

Bad news for Biden on inflation: Voters have long memories - Roll Call

Monthly rates are coming down but the damage has been done

The Biden administration likes to tout its success in getting inflation down to under 4 percent for seven consecutive months. But when he came into office, inflation was at 1.4 percent in January 2021, and had been under 3 percent for 109 consecutive months.

So even at the current levels, down from the highs of summer 2022, the Biden administration has not yet matched prior presidents’ inflation levels going back almost a decade, spanning Donald Trump’s entire presidency and the majority of President Barack Obama’s tenure.

In March 2021, when the American Rescue Plan was signed, the inflation rate was 2.6 percent. By May 2021, it was at 5 percent, starting a 23-month run at that rate or higher. The peak inflation run was a 12-month period from December 2021 through November 2022 of 7 percent or higher.

While the monthly, year-over-year rate has certainly dropped, the electorate sees this from a different perspective — by how much prices have gone up since Biden was inaugurated. That is more important to the electorate, as prices have increased by 17.3 percent, what The Winston Group has termed the Presidential Inflation Rate (PIR). In looking at the performance of the previous seven presidents at the same point in their terms, only President Jimmy Carter had a larger increase.

The rise in gas prices is a good example of why voters remain skeptical of Biden’s claims.

There is no question that gas prices have come down significantly since the summer of 2022, when cumulative gas prices had increased by a staggering 107.4 percent, measuring from Biden’s inauguration month. But gas prices are still 35.1 percent higher than what they were in January 2021. That’s a tough sell.

So is telling consumers that food price inflation has dropped to below 3 percent, when overall food prices have gone up 20.1 percent since Biden took office. As with gas prices, only Carter had a higher increase in food prices at this point in his term.

Electricity costs have also risen significantly, increasing cumulatively by 25.1 percent. This is the largest price increase of any of the last seven presidents — and yet Biden decides this week to clamp down on natural gas.

Part of Biden’s economic message has centered on wage growth by focusing on short-term data rather than the longer-term impact. If you only look at the increases in hourly wages over the last eight months, wages have come in slightly ahead of inflation; but for the prior 25 months, wages trailed inflation. Overall, since Biden’s inaugural, hourly wages have cumulatively increased 14.5 percent, while inflation has gone up 17.3 percent.

This means inflation has outpaced hourly wages by 2.8 percent so far in Biden’s term. Looking at weekly wages, however, the picture gets worse. Weekly wages have cumulatively increased 12.2 percent, leaving a 5.1 percent shortfall due to inflation. A 5.1 percent reduction in purchasing power is a significant number.

Government decisions shut down the economy. Their prerogative.
Government decisions increased the money supply. Their prerogative.
Government decisions increased the price of goods.

Now they expect their voters to thank them for less bread on their table.
They expect their voters to accept lower wages.

And they wonder why people don't want to vote for them.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen offered a rare moment of Biden administration transparency on the economy this week.

“Well, I think most Americans know that prices are not likely to fall,” Yellin told ABC News on Sunday. “It’s not the Fed’s objective to try to push the level of prices back to where they were.”

Meanwhile, in the elite world,

Over-educated urban elites think Americans have too much freedom | National Post

Of registered voters, just 16 per cent say there’s “too much individual freedom” in the U.S.; 57 per cent say there’s “too much government control.” Of elites, 47 per cent say there’s too much freedom; 21 per cent say there’s too much control. Among Ivy League graduates, 55 per cent finger too much freedom; and only 15 per cent see too much control.

Shut up and eat your gruel.

 

[Kirkhill]

Not shutting up.

French farmers force the government to listen. That is the good news

'Technocratic EU does not respect farmers', says union boss

The “technocratic” EU does not “respect” farmers, the leader of one of France’s biggest farming unions said, as Brussels was swarmed by tractor convoys on Thursday.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Here's the bad news.

France’s biggest farming unions have called off protests after winning a series of concessions from the government.

“We are calling on our networks… to suspend the blockades and embark on a new form of mobilisation,” Arnaud Gaillot and Arnaud Rousseau, who lead the FNSEA and Jeunes Agriculteurs unions, said.

Mr Rousseau added that Gabriel Attal, the French prime minister, had made “tangible progress” on tackling their grievances after his previous “botched and incomplete” attempts.

Earlier on Thursday, Mr Attal said France will protect its farmers from “the law of the jungle” by enshrining in law the principle that it should be self-reliant in food and tightening import controls.

He added that the government would relax environmental regulations where allowed by EU law, while ruling out a trade deal with South American countries that farmers fear will undercut them.

France has been rocked by four days of farming protests. Protesters crossed one of the government’s red lines yesterday when they entered the international market at Rungis, near Paris.

French farmers win.
European consumers lose.
Another job well done.

 

[CBH99]

Not shutting up.

French farmers force the government to listen. That is the good news

'Technocratic EU does not respect farmers', says union boss

The “technocratic” EU does not “respect” farmers, the leader of one of France’s biggest farming unions said, as Brussels was swarmed by tractor convoys on Thursday.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Here's the bad news.




French farmers win.
European consumers lose.
Another job well done.

For anybody still somehow arguing on behalf of our government's handling of the Trucker protests, take note...look at what's possible when a government chooses to sit down and listen to its citizens

I'm so glad to read the French farmers won. I hope other countries follow France's lead on this

 

[Kirkhill]

Why political leaders are so unpopular now

Voters are reacting to long-term problems, and looking for fresh fixes

www.ft.com

Why political leaders are so unpopular now​

Voters are reacting to long-term problems, and looking for fresh fixes

RUCHIR SHARMA

Joe Biden’s record low popularity ratings get a lot of attention, yet leaders across the developed world are in a similar predicament to the US president — they have rarely been this unpopular.

I track leaders’ approval ratings in 20 major democracies, using leading pollsters such as Morning Consult, Gallup and Compolítica. In the developed world, no leader has a rating above 50 per cent. Only one country (Italy) has seen its leader gain approval in the 2020s. At 37 per cent, Biden’s rating is at a record low for a US president late in his first term — but above average for his peers.

Signs of old age may be hurting the 81-year-old Biden’s ratings but this does not explain the wider trend. Between 1950 and 2020, the average age of presidents and prime ministers in developed countries fell from above 60 to around 54. The leaders of Britain, Germany, France and Japan are far younger than Biden — but even less popular. All four have ratings below 30 per cent.

(Trudeau is at 32% according to Angus Reid)

Trudeau Tracker - Angus Reid Institute

angusreid.org

The debate about Biden centres on why he gets such low marks despite relatively strong recent economic data, including lower inflation. Yet approval ratings have been trending down for first term US presidents since Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. Biden supporters hope the improving economy will eventually lift his ratings, but he is up against deeply entrenched trends.

Leaders across the developed world are, at least in part, victims of a long-term decay in national morale. Slower economic growth, rising inequality and a growing feeling that the system is rigged against the average person — all these factors are magnified by the polarising impact of social media.

I tend to disregard social media's role except insofar as it spreads the word. Restricting the spread of the word has been the goal of governments over the ages. Interwebs, TV, Radio, Telegraph, Presses, travellers and itinerant preachers have all been the focus of government controls on the spreading of the word.

In the US, Democrats have grown less likely to vote for a Republican, much less marry one, and vice versa. Polarisation is personal, bitter. Similar splits are widening in Europe, where voters have more parties to choose from and are turning on the established ones. Between the early 1990s and 2020 the vote share of extreme parties in Europe increased from near zero to 25 per cent. This was led by gains on the far right, which casts itself as a defender of the common people against outsiders and a pampered, global elite.

Or, the elite, having spent the past 70 years declaring themselves to be left leaning centrists find themselves having to define their opposition as far right. The elite are of the left and absolutely not of the right because to be of the right would mean to be supportive of Mussolini, Franco and Salazar and that would be absolutely terrible. Worse than leaning towards the communists even who, after all, also won WW2. Left leaning liberals is who they always were, even when they supported Mussolini.

Social media appears to intensify partisan rancour. A solid majority in most developed economies — and nearly 80 per cent in the US — believe these platforms are widening political divisions. It may also be that the public is becoming increasingly alienated from democratic leaders because fewer talented people are entering politics, put off by the ploys required for survival in a digitised arena.

Somebody is doing a nice job of deflection. Next thing you know there will be a general clamour for censorship and the listing of prohibited books and banned ideologies.

In the developing world, however, while social media can be just as widespread and as hostile in tenor, it seems to be inflicting less damage on incumbents. In my poll tracker for 10 of the largest developing nations, the majority of leaders still have a rating above 50 per cent. The sense of disappointment that shadows leaders of developed countries has yet to overwhelm their peers in the developing world.

Or, perhaps, it could be that the voters of the developing world are seeing their prospects improve while being told that the future belongs to them. Meanwhile the voters of the developed world are seeing their prospects decline while being told not only that they have no future but that they are evil, responsible for the world's ills and should shut up and enjoy their punishment.

One possible reason is that while globalisation and digitisation have helped lift the fortunes of many in the developing world, the developed nations have in recent decades seen slower growth. This is particularly true for the middle classes. From highs of at least 3 per cent in the 1960s and 1970s, growth in average per capita income has slowed in the US to 1.5 per cent, and in the large European countries and Japan to around one per cent or less. Perhaps not coincidentally, Japan has suffered the sharpest long-term decline in per capita income growth, and today has the least popular prime minister, Fumio Kishida, with an approval rating of 21 per cent.

As noted.

Polls show that voters in advanced economies are losing faith that the modern capitalist system can generate opportunities for everyone, and are increasingly inclined to believe that “people can only get rich at the expense of others”. Most see themselves as “others”. In 2023, the number of people who expect to be “better off in five years” hit record lows below 50 per cent in all 14 of the developed countries surveyed by the Edelman Trust Barometer. Optimists were a minority everywhere. Even the positive vibes emanating from a rising stock market aren’t cheering people outside the financial world.

And this serves none but those who would control the bureaucracy and the means of distribution. Cash is freedom. Your money, your choice.

This bodes ill for incumbents, with national elections in many of the leading democracies this year. As recently as the early 2000s, incumbents were winning 70 per cent of their re-election bids; lately they have won just 30 per cent. To restore their traditional advantage, incumbents need to recognise that the connection between headline economic data and political support has broken. Voters are reacting to long-term decline, and are looking for fresh fixes.

Hope.

 

[Kirkhill]

For anybody still somehow arguing on behalf of our government's handling of the Trucker protests, take note...look at what's possible when a government chooses to sit down and listen to its citizens

I'm so glad to read the French farmers won. I hope other countries follow France's lead on this

Dutch farmers did alright as well.

Nitrogen wars: the Dutch farmers’ revolt that turned a nation upside-down | Farming | The Guardian

The Kiwis were only bested because their government resorted to grievous emergency measures worse than those imposed by Trudeau

Kiwi Cops Blast Use Of Barry Manilow Songs To Clear Protesters | Barron's

 

[Kirkhill]

The Meaningless Incoherence Of "LGBTQ+"​

Time to drop the ubiquitous term. It obscures and misleads more than it clarifies.​

ANDREW SULLIVAN
FEB 2, 2024
∙ PAID

Andrew Sullivan | Substack

Andrew Sullivan is Gay and Conservative..... The article is worth buying.

Some highlights
The 2SLGBTQI+ community is a heterodox bunch. It even includes Trump supporters (rising between 2016 and 2020)

2SLGBTQI+

50% Democrats

22% Independent

15% Republican

13% Other

2016 - 14% Trump

2020 - 27% Trump

The core elements of the community are Gay Men and Lesbian Women. Prior to the Obergefell decision on same sex marriage in 2015 they were lumped together under the pejorative Queer (Thus LGQ). Lesbians were always women. Gays were always men. They went to different bars. There were twice as many Gays as Lesbians. There still are.

Gays tend to be white, at peace with themselves, well credentialled and rich.
Lesbians also tend to be white but not as comfortable as Gays.

The new kids on the block are the Bisexuals (LGBQ).

The Bisexuals make up fully half of the 2SLGBTQI+ community. They are predominantly women. They tend to have sex with members of the opposite sex. They tend to marry members of the opposite sex. In other words they tend to live lives indistinguishable from straight people.
40% of the 2SLGBTQ+ community is functionally straight.

Gay	Bisexual	Lesbian
	46% of the 2SLGBTQ+ Group
100% Men	78% Women	100% Women
	22% Men
	39% copulate with both sexes
	(18%)

		Queer Community
10% Bi Men	32% Gay Men	67% Gay Men	16% Lesbian Women	36% Bi Women
8% of Bi Men Straight	2% of Bi Men Gay	33% Lesbian Women	6% of Bi Women Gay	30% of Bi Women Straight
	75% White		75% White
	7% Mentally Stressed
	50% Undergrads
	6% Grads
	High Income
	12% Poverty

Sullivan argues that as of the Obergefell decision there is not much evidence that Lesbians, Gays or Bisexuals find much evidence of oppression in their own lives.

Transexuals are another matter. They are a small community with their own very specific problems. They seek out allies. They used to have them when they were outsiders along with the "Queer" community but now that the Queers are on the inside looking out the Trans community is isolated.

It is natural that they would seek allies.

Transexual

6% of the 2SLGBTQ+ Group

53% White

30% Mentally Stressed

29% Poverty

But they have a major problem in that their problems are not those of the rest 2SLGBTQI+ community. This is most clearly demonstrated in the case of J.K. Rowling - a successful Lesbian who is rejected as an ally by the Trans community.


....

I have mentioned the 2015 Obergefell decision on same sex marriage. Sullivan raised the point.

The usage of the word "Lesbian" in the press peaked in 2014.
The usage of the word "Gay" in the press peaked in 2015.

Obergefell settled the lives of many Gays and Lesbians and delivered a substantial degree of acceptance in the general community.

There might have been hope that there was one less wedge issue in society and that internal strife might have been calmed.

....

In 2016 the LGBT formulation arose.
A new wedge issue.
Strife continues.

 

[OldSolduer]

And the Premier of Alberta has come down with some regulations about those under 15 being prevented from taking puberty blocking drugs etc.

Naturally the LGBTQ community- at least the activists- including Federal politicians- are attacking it.

 

[GK .Dundas]

I suspect that this whole business is more about playing scorched earth political games in the Federal Provincial arena. Both the Prime Minister and the Premier seem to enjoy that so much and screw the innocent bystanders.
It plays to the loons on both sides .

 

[Kirkhill]

Per the inestimable Terry Glavin - 30 January 2024

The Real Story
​

Israel in the hours before an uncertain dawn.​

Home again. Much to report. In the shadows, faint glimpses of what may be light.​

JAN 30, 2024


Ring the bells that still can ring. Forget your perfect offering. There is a crack, a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in.
- from Leonard Cohen’s Anthem.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...d9-58a1-49bf-81f6-f0f109088dc8_4000x1848.jpeg
It is, whether we want to admit this or not, a world war. It is directed from Tehran and Moscow, its quartermaster is Beijing. For all the unspeakable acts of barbarism committed by Hamas in the October 7 attacks that shocked the civilized world and set the current agonies on their course, this is also true: What Hamas carried off was a sophisticated, meticulously planned military operation.

True Dat.

 

[Kirkhill]

Oh to be in Sinn Fein.

You gain Ulster. You lose the Republic.

Leo Varadkar’s flirtation with open borders has awoken the sleeping beast of Irish nationalism. A nursing home in Co Dublin which was being considered for housing for asylum seekers has this week been destroyed in a suspected arson attack. Hundreds of people have thundered through the streets of the capital in recent months, brandishing Irish flags and chanting “get them out” about the government as part of an anti-immigration protest.
The public has grown tired of the state’s ever-more porous borders and inadequate public services. This has mostly manifested as peaceful, local demonstrations against the housing of asylum seekers in small rural towns and deprived urban areas.
But Monday’s demonstration took on a more nativistic, muscular tone. One seldom sees streams of Irish tricolour flags outside of an international sports fixture – and the anger of those waving them was palpable.
There was an air of sedition. Protestors lambasted the government for “taking the Queen’s shilling”, an old term for Republican apostates. Sinn Fein, the traditional home of bellicose Irish nationalism which is nevertheless supportive of mass immigration, were called “traitors”. And the unprecedented number of asylum seekers arriving into the country in recent years – up nearly 200 per cent from 2019 to 2022 – was repeatedly cast as an “invasion”.
“There’s thousands of patriots here today to oppose this new plantation”, one protester said.
“And if the people of Ireland don’t stand up and stop this invasion, Ireland will be gone forever…Cromwell himself would blush about what’s happening in this country.”

The Irish government often says the mass influx of asylum seekers cannot be helped. Ministers are wont to remind the Irish people of their need to fulfil Ireland’s “international obligations”. This has stoked anti-EU sentiment, with the Irish government regularly described by immigration sceptics as “puppets” for Brussels. This further lends itself to the sense of Ireland being under the cosh of a new empire – one that is aloof from the concerns of ordinary people.

Ireland’s anti-Varadkar rebellion is just getting started

A chasm is opening between the pro-immigration elites and the public who suffer the consequences of porous borders

www.telegraph.co.uk

Hope Michelle enjoyed her selfie




The Irish got bent out of shape in 2008 when their banks were collapsing. EU and the IMF were imposing austerity measures on the Irish.

Thousands march against budget cuts and IMF bailout

Ireland entered the final hours of negotiations for emergency EU and IMF loans on Saturday, as thousands of demonstrators marched through the streets of Dublin against the deal.

www.france24.com

AFP - About 50,000 Irish people took to the streets Saturday to oppose savage cutbacks needed to secure an international bailout, police said, piling pressure on the debt-laden nation's embattled government.

Waving placards reading "Eire not for sale, not to the IMF" and "there is a better, fairer way", the crowd marched through Dublin in a mass protest against the austerity package announced Wednesday by Prime Minister Brian Cowen.

Cowen's government say the measures, along with a budget due on December 7, are a pre-condition to securing European Union and International Monetary Fund loans worth a reported 85 billion euros (113 billion dollars).

EU finance ministers will meet in Brussels Sunday to discuss the loans, a French source told AFP, boosting speculation of an announcement before markets open on Monday morning.

The loans will be directed in part at Ireland's struggling banks and are intended to try to stop the debt crisis spreading to other eurozone nations.

But there is widespread anger in Ireland at the bailout and voters dealt Cowen's Fianna Fail party a humiliating by-election defeat on Friday which cut the FF/Green Party coalition's parliamentary majority to just two.

"Why should we pay for the banks? ... The euro is on its way out," said Esther Hoad, 48, a civil servant who drove 180 miles (290 kilometres) on frozen roads to join the Dublin protest.

About 700 police officers were deployed in Dublin for the march, which took place amid bitingly cold temperatures, although it was largely peaceful.

"We are here to object to the arrogance of the government," Irish Congress of Trade Unions president Jack O'Connor, who is also head of Ireland's biggest union, SIPTU, told the crowd.

He added: "They want to sign a blank cheque for generations to come. We're not here to pay for the speculators, but we're here to insist on a fair plan."

The Brits to the rescue.

British taxpayers funded Ireland's £14bn bail-out

British taxpayers have provided Ireland with a backdoor bail-out of more than £14bn via the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Almost one pound in every four injected into the two state-backed banks by the Government has gone directly into the Irish economy, the two lenders' subsidiary accounts show.
Between 2009 and 2011, RBS made "capital contributions" totalling €9.13bn (£7.6bn) to its Dublin-headquartered subsidiary Ulster Bank Ireland. Over the same period, Lloyds transferred £6.41bn to its Irish operation, Bank of Scotland (Ireland), before dissolving the business.
The total – £14bn – amounts to more than a fifth of the £65bn UK taxpayers injected into RBS and Lloyds in 2008 and 2009, and is expected to rise further. Analysts estimate that RBS transferred another £2bn last year.
RBS and Lloyds used the funds to write off billions of pounds of debt loaned to Irish commercial property developers and households in the "Celtic Tiger" boom years.

Underlying tensions in the EU.

 

[OldSolduer]

"The Irish government often says the mass influx of asylum seekers cannot be helped. Ministers are wont to remind the Irish people of their need to fulfil Ireland’s “international obligations”. This has stoked anti-EU sentiment, with the Irish government regularly described by immigration sceptics as “puppets” for Brussels. This further lends itself to the sense of Ireland being under the cosh of a new empire – one that is aloof from the concerns of ordinary people."

Ireland's international obligations - what exactly is that? What are any nations "international obligations"?

What are Canada's "international obligations"? To be a doormat for any terrorist group that wants a safe haven?