Lebanon (Superthread)

[tamouh]

Combination os Syrian and UN forces should fix the problem. They demonstrated good control over Hezbollah before their withdrawal, and they've controlled the Golan height border pretty well.

It also puts Syria in a responsible position in the event Hezbollah initiate any attacks. But I don't think Syria nor Israel would agree to my proposal

 

[Infanteer]

But they won't.

We'll have to see how the cards fall; I can see the French, due to domestic politics, seeing an interest in shutting down militant Islam.

My worries are more on the technical side; all the guys here who worked ISAF were quite frank in their observations on the "Eurorentals".  Someone mentioned the IDF being the only military capable of dealing with Hezbollah - to an extent, yes; Israel knows (or at least now remembers) how ruthless and capable Hezbollah can be - I can't see the antics that were in Kabul being effective against such a determined force.

 

[Kat Stevens]

Libyans.  Just set a few missile cruisers steaming around offshore, as an incentive to play nice.  ;D

edited to add:  Offshore of Libya, that is... give Moamar a reason to stay onside.

 

[Infanteer]

Lebanon is not radicalized, outside the Shia community, against the US. In fact a US presence may be seen as a good thing for the Sunni,Druze and Chritian communities.

???

http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370093

The Sunni al-Fajr Forces Fight with Hezbollah in Lebanon

By Abdul Hameed Bakier

Despite calls and fatwas by some Sunni groups forbidding the fight alongside Hezbollah, the Lebanese Sunni Islamic resistance has joined Hezbollah in fighting the Israeli intervention. The biggest Islamic Sunni movement in Lebanon, Jamaa Islamiya, is fighting alongside Hezbollah to fend off Israel's incursion into Lebanon, sending the al-Fajr Forces (Dawn Forces), its military wing, to engage in combat with the Israeli Defense Forces.  According to Faisal Mawlawi, a prominent Islamic scholar and the chairman of Jamaa Islamiya in Lebanon, "it is time Sunnis participate in the defense of Lebanon as they do in Palestine. They have been marginalized for decades because the circumstances weren't suitable for everyone to participate in the honorable resistance" (http://news.maktoob.com/?q=node/29774, July 26).

Sheikh Ibrahim al-Masri, the deputy chairman of Jamaa Islamiya, revealed the presence of Jamaa Islamiya's military wing in some Lebanese southern villages; al-Fajr Forces are operating jointly with Hezbollah in some locations and separately in others.  Al-Masri did not specify the size of the al-Fajr Forces, but he reiterated that they mainly operate near the Israeli-Lebanese border in Arqoub, Shabaa, al-Habariya and Kafr Shuba villages.  On the western side of the border with Israel, al-Fajr fighters are active in Marwahin, al-Bustan and al-Dhairah villages (Islam-Online.net, July 28).  In addition, the al-Fajr Forces are present in the suburbs of Saida city.  Al-Masri added that Jamaa Islamiya was founded in 1975 as a political entity.  As a result of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Jamaa Islamiya established its own military arm called Tanzim al-Mujahideen (the Mujahideen Organization) that deployed and controlled some villages in southern Lebanon after Israel's pullout in 1985.  Later, they handed those villages back to the Lebanese regular army and dismantled Tanzim al-Mujahideen.  In 1990, Jamaa Islamiyya established a new military wing called the al-Fajr Forces and joined sides with Hezbollah in liberating the remaining Lebanese southern territories (Islam-Online.net, July 28). They remained active until Israel pulled out completely from Lebanon in May 2000.

Concerning the military capabilities of the al-Fajr Forces, al-Masri said al-Fajr is a self-funded group with limited weaponry, automatic rifles and mortar canons.  Militarily, the al-Fajr Forces are no match for Hezbollah, which is why they abide by the latter's decisions pertinent to armed resistance operations in the battlefield (http://www.muslm.net/vb/showthread.php?t=168025, August 2).  In light of the conflicting fatwas about cooperation with Hezbollah in the fight against Israel, it is not clear whether more Sunni Jihadists will seek to join Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

I think the US is stretched pretty thin but we could sustain a couple of brigades as we drawdown forces in Iraq.

Oh, you're not being facetious.  Do you really think that America, with its relationship with Israel, it's position in Iraq, and it's all time low popularity amongst most Arab/Muslim countries, is going to help things by going into Lebanon.  Hezbollah is riding high and has a lot of cred right now in the Arab world; having US engage it seems counterproductive right now - as well, an Iranian-backed Hezbollah would probably make Ansar al-Sunna look like amateurs.  You don't see Al-Anbar II written all over the wall???

 

[paracowboy]

I think France's problems with their indigent Muslim population as being one of the many reasons they won't enforce the neutrality.

If they send the Legion, with strict orders to ignore the cowardice and treachery of the Vichy French Gov't, then maybe. The Legion has the stones to kick back at either Israel or Hezbollah, or anyone else who crosses them, and the professionalism to be able to do it well.

 

[cplcaldwell]

It does not seem unreasonable that Jamaa Islamiya would resurrect their armed wing fight with Hezbollah if it seems advantageous. After all remember the founder of Jamaa Islamiya is the lovely and talented Omar Abdel Rahman, currently a guest of the American Republic at one of their finest 'super max' prisons for the next, oh, lifetime or two.

Shaikh Nasrullah of Hezbollah has often declared a 'raison d'etre' for Hezbollah is the release of prisoners associated with his ilk from foreign prisons. Often this is taken to mean Israeli prisons, but he has, more than once, named Abdel-Rahman specifically as being among this group.

Their is more than a passing affinity between Jamaa Islamiya and Hezbollah.

Now I now they renounced violence a while ago but consider Jamaa Islamiya's efficiency at Luxor in 1997 (and many others). As well as just as late that this month(?) good ole Ayman al Zawahiri (you may remember him for his past hits such as 9/11, Madrid Train Bombings and who could forget, the London Subway (7/7)) announced a 'new business partnership' with Jamaa Islamiya, this could be a nasty three way party.

Hezbollah, a renewedly violent Jamaa Islamiya and al Qaeda. hmmm yup, Ansar al Sunna is looking pretty light in the bullpen about now.....

 

[Infanteer]

Don't confuse "Jamma Islamiya" of Lebanon with others.  Jamaat al Islamiya is a transliteration of "Islamic Group" and is pretty generic.  There are about 4 or 5 Muji organizations that go by this title (Egypt's, which has recently been resuscitated after being taken apart for the Luxor massacre; Lebanon, Pakistan, and Indonesia to name a few).

These guys are quite unoriginal when you consider that must of these groups are pretty creative with their names (Sword of the Prophet, Defenders of the Sunnah).

 

[cplcaldwell]

Infanteer: You may in fact be quite right. Sorry I do become quite confused with all the organizations and could very well be off the mark on that one. Drat, I thought I had it all figgered out!

At any rate I stand, either to be corrected, or corrected, as the case may be, on which Jamaa Islamiya we are talking about.

At any rate, Nasrullah's admiration for Abdel Rahman, Jamaa Islamiya (of Eqypt's) nastiness, and al Qaeda's new alliance with Jamaa Islamiya (of Egypt?) are (IMHO) pretty clear.

At any rate, the battle field, despite my best efforts is still a mess, call in the Artillery...

 

[tomahawk6]

Quote from: tomahawk6 on Today at 12:17:31
I think the US is stretched pretty thin but we could sustain a couple of brigades as we drawdown forces in Iraq.

Oh, you're not being facetious.  Do you really think that America, with its relationship with Israel, it's position in Iraq, and it's all time low popularity amongst most Arab/Muslim countries, is going to help things by going into Lebanon.  Hezbollah is riding high and has a lot of cred right now in the Arab world; having US engage it seems counterproductive right now - as well, an Iranian-backed Hezbollah would probably make Ansar al-Sunna look like amateurs.  You don't see Al-Anbar II written all over the wall???

Despite the obvious negatives the US would be one party that would keep Hizbollah out of the area below the Litani. Few other countries have both the military capability and will do perform the mission. That said do I expect the US to deploy a couple of brigades as part of UNIFIL ? No. Do I expect UNIFIL to keep Hizbollah out of southern Lebanon ? No.

 

[George Wallace]

Don't confuse "Jamma Islamiya" of Lebanon with others.  Jamaat al Islamiya is a transliteration of "Islamic Group" and is pretty generic.  There are about 4 or 5 Muji organizations that go by this title (Egypt's, which has recently been resuscitated after being taken apart for the Luxor massacre; Lebanon, Pakistan, and Indonesia to name a few).

You caught me by surprise, I took a "too quick a glance" at that.  I was wondering how the Jemaah Islamiyah in the Philipines became involved.  There are al-Qaida-linked groups like Moro Islamic Liberation Front, Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah found in the Philippines.

So, yes it is important to be clear which group is which.  I was temporarily thinking of things half a world away.  Would have really added to the confusion.

 

[paracowboy]

There are al-Qaida-linked groups like Moro Islamic Liberation Front, Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah found in the Philippines.

named for Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, by the way. Look him up, and see where he is, what he's doing now, and just exactly who's been dealing with him, rather blowing a hole in his forehead.  :

 

[Scoobie Newbie]

http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/news/shownews.jsp?content=w080757A

August 7, 2006 - 19:15

Captured Hezbollah guerrilla says he trained in Iran, took part in other raid

SARAH EL DEEB

JERUSALEM (AP) - Israel's army released a video Monday purporting to show the interrogation of a Hezbollah fighter acknowledging his part in the raid on an Israeli army patrol July 12, the spark that ignited the current conflict in Lebanon.

In the video, Hussein Ali Suleiman, 22, said the seizure of the two Israelis was the second time he had taken part in such an attempt, following an unsuccessful raid in 2005. He also spoke about training in Iran.

The tape shown on Israeli television appeared to be heavily edited, and some answers were cut off in mid-sentence. He appeared to have light bruises or wounds on his cheeks and lips.

Israel announced his capture Sunday, although it was not clear when he fell into Israeli hands. Separate television footage showed him in the custody of soldiers in the field with his arms bound and a large cloth covering his eyes.

In the video, Suleiman said he joined the Islamic militia when he was 15 and received four rounds of training before he took part in an attempt to seize Israeli soldiers.

Israel says Hezbollah has tried repeatedly to capture Israelis to barter for the release of prisoners from Israeli jails. In early 2004, Hezbollah swapped an Israeli businessman kidnapped in Europe and the bodies of three Israeli soldiers for hundreds of Arab prisoners and scores of guerrilla corpses.

Speaking in Arabic, Suleiman told his interrogators he attended military manoeuvres in Iran with 40 or 50 other Hezbollah guerrillas in 2003. He gave no details on the parts of the tape made public.

He said the trainees drove from Beirut to the Syrian capital, Damascus, in Hezbollah cars and from there took a special flight to Iran without passing through passport control.

Suleiman said his first operation was in late 2005, apparently an attempt to take Israeli prisoners. His task was to manage anti-tank missiles.

Asked if the operation failed, he said: "It had other aims. The main aim didn't go well, but the secondary aim was to direct a severe blow to the (Israeli) posts."

The tape showed Suleiman speaking briefly about the July 12 cross-border operation in which his unit killed three Israelis and took two others with them to Lebanon. His job was to cut the access routes to the patrol, he said before the tape abruptly cut off.

In 1998, Suleiman said he attended night school for 1 1/2 months, a "soldiers course" that involved classes in Islamic law and jurisprudence.

He said he received his next training after Israel ended its 18-year occupation of south Lebanon in 2000, a 45-day "fighter" course that involved weapons training, sabotage and communications. Four months later, he trained on anti-tank weapons and underwent more training several months later.

 

[tomahawk6]

Dont expect a ceasefire Monday morning. The Lebanese cabinet has put off its meeting to discuss implementation issues because they are having difficulty getting Hizbollah on board. Today over 200 rockets were fired into Israel and one should expect more on Monday. Hizbollah doesnt want to disarm nor do they want to pullout of southern Lebanon. If the Lebanese cabinet doesnt implement the UN resolution expect Israel to move from the Litani into the Bekaa.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/08/13/mideast.main/index.html?section=cnn_topstories

 

[The Bread Guy]

....especially given the positions we hear via the media:

''Israeli forces will withdraw from southern Lebanon only when the Lebanese army and the International peacekeeping forces are deployed, Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said on Sunday. ''
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200608/14/eng20060814_292779.html

"Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said on Saturday the militant organization would abide by the U.N. cease-fire resolution but would keep fighting as long as Israeli troops remained in southern Lebanon. "
http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/08/12/ap2945357.html

 

[zipperhead_cop]

Hey, come on!  They aren't called the United Nations for nothing.  Once they put their minds to a task, boy howdee, they git 'er done!  ISAF deployed by Friday at the latest.  No?  :

 

[geo]

Far as I know, they haven't finished determining who will compose the intervention force that is expected to stand between Hezbolah & Israel.  And if you think the Lebanese "army" is up to the task - think again, they have avoided the southern part of their own country for years - because Hezbolah was there.....

1st incident on Monday: IDF fired on a Hezbolah guerilla preparing to fire on an Israeli - RIP.

 

[zipperhead_cop]

Yeah, I wonder if there is an established record for the fasted failed cease fire? 

 

[Cloud Cover]

The Lebanese army will not deploy unless Hizbollah disarms.

The Lebanese ambassador to the UN says the Lebanese army will not disarm Hizbollah, rather Hizbollah must disarm voluntarily.

Hizbollah says it will not disarm.

That leaves exactly who to disarm Hizbollah? The UN? 

From the Jerusalem Post:


'LAF to deploy in South within 72 hours'


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ap and jpost.com staff, THE JERUSALEM POST  Aug. 14, 2006

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Lebanon's communications minister told French radio Monday that the Lebanese army was preparing to cross the Litani River into the troubled south within two or three days, despite uncertainty about a future UN force for the region.

"The Lebanese army is readying itself along the Litani to cross the river in 48 or 72 hours," Marwan Hamade said on Europe-1 radio.

It will then be flanked by "the first contingents of an international force," he added, likely from France, Turkey, Spain and Italy. He did not give a timeframe.

He spoke shortly after a UN-imposed cease-fire went into effect across the region, halting a month of fighting.

The UN Security Council approved a hard-fought resolution Friday calling for the cease-fire and deployment of 15,000 Lebanese troops and 15,000 UN peacekeepers in a 30-kilometer (18-mile) zone between the Litani River and the contested Lebanese-Israeli border. Some 2,000 UN troops already monitor the region.

But implementation of the resolution was in question after the Lebanese Cabinet on Sunday indefinitely postponed a crucial meeting dealing with plans for the deployment. Lebanese media reported that the Cabinet was sharply divided over demands that Hizbullah surrender its weapons in the south.
Hamade said the Lebanese government would try Monday to find a "formula" for implementing the resolution.

Lebanon's ambassador to the UN said that his government would not use force to ensure the dismantling of Hizbullah, sources said early Monday morning. 
He claimed that Hizbullah would independently be responsible for leaving south Lebanon. "We could have completed a cease-fire by Sunday morning, but Israel insisted on destroying the essence of Lebanon," the ambassador commented while being interviewed by CNN.

Earlier, another Lebanese cabinet minister said that the Lebanese army would not deploy in southen Lebanon if Hizbullah retains its weapons.

"The army will not deploy in the south unless there are no arms in the south except those of a legitimate military force and UNIFIL," the minister said. 
Hizbullah, however, has resisted calls to disarm and its refusal to follow through threatened the deal.

A top aide to Prime Minister Fuad Saniora said the cabinet meeting had been indefinitely postponed but would give no reason.


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[zipperhead_cop]

"We could have completed a cease-fire by Sunday morning, but Israel insisted on destroying the essence of Lebanon,"

So the "essence" of Lebanon is weapons bunkers and Hezbollah strongholds? 

 

[geo]

The Lebanese army will not deploy unless Hizbollah disarms.

The Lebanese ambassador to the UN says the Lebanese army will not disarm Hizbollah, rather Hizbollah must disarm voluntarily.

Guess the Lebanese army knows which side of the slice of bread is buttered AND given that the Lebanese gov't has steadfastly refused to get a grip on their own territory, the army would be insane to take the initiative and attempt to control the area.