Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Good2Golf]

Iraq needs to take lessons from KSA on feigning outrage while continuing to get billions of dollars in support from Uncle Sam.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

This kind of bullshit posturing really pissed me off.

Iraq as a sovereign nation was almost brought to it knees because a foreign power (ISIS) was allowed to foment within Syria and Iraq, and it was only the intervention of western powers that brought Iraq back from the brink of disaster.

Now, another malignant foreign power, this time Iran, has been allowed to spread and fester throughout Iraq and the Levant. So, I'm sorry Iraq, do you want the West's help to prevent this from boiling over into another hostile takeover from within, or do you want to become a vassal for the Iranian regime?

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-68144478

Iraq had two+ problems, a Shiite milita that was aligned with Iranian interests and a Sunni population that was awaiting retribution. Nobody expected the Baathists and Islamic nutbars to make peace and work together like they did and to be fair ISIS did a excellent job in neutering the elite before even coming out. Coupled with Shiite power groups duking it out, trying to curry and reject Iranian influence at the same time, Shiites distrust and hatred to Sunni's and vis versa. Along with trying to suppress Kurdish nationalism, it was one messy bowel of poop.

 

[brihard]

I don’t think that the power vacuum that Darsh emerged into was always there. How long has it been since Iraq has a sovereign, relatively stable (if awful) government? What happened to it?

Iraqis may have a somewhat different perspective on what they owe the west and what they ought to be grateful for.

 

[brihard]

Axios is reporting that Iran has commenced an attack on Israel with dozens of drones. Just breaking, and my understanding is we’re still within flight time. Could be a spicy few days starting pretty much now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779232573979246865

 

[dapaterson]

Airspace being closed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779229268225962100

 

[Good2Golf]

More from the media with some chronology of recent/today’s happenings:

Middle East latest: Iran launches drones at Israel and they will arrive within hours, IDF says

Iran has launched "pilotless aircraft" at Israel, the Israeli military has said. Delivering a televised statement, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari says Israel is "well prepared" for the attack.

news.sky.com

 

[brihard]

Drones are a long and slow hit, and the Shaheds have shown to be pretty easy to intercept. I’m waiting to see if there’s more than this. A wave of Shaheds is not, really, a serious strike at Israel. Could be it’s intended to simply satisfy revenge optics, or as part of a larger ‘time on target’ approach with other munitions to be launched in the coming hours.

 

[Good2Golf]

Drones are a long and slow hit, and the Shaheds have shown to be pretty easy to intercept. I’m waiting to see if there’s more than this. A wave of Shaheds is not, really, a serious strike at Israel. Could be it’s intended to simply satisfy revenge optics, or as part of a larger ‘time on target’ approach with other munitions to be launched in the coming hours.

Hard to say, but I think the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus was a clear “we know you were behind inciting Hamas to 7 Oct, and we’re done letting you mess about the M.E. by proxy…

 

[Staff Weenie]

CNN (taken with a grain of salt) is citing Israeli sources saying there are over 100 drones, mixed with cruise missiles.

 

[brihard]

“First 24 hours” rules is in effect. Expect lots of bullshit and fakery, triple check anything before you put stock in it.

 

[PuckChaser]

Israel's been looking to take the gloves off with Iran for a while. This might be the impetus for a larger strike on Iran proper.

 

[GR66]

CNN says Iranian state news claims a first barrage of ballistic missiles has been launched against Israel

 

[brihard]

CNN says Iranian state news claims a first barrage of ballistic missiles has been launched against Israel

Timing checks out. They’ll be trying to overwhelm air defences with all the drones and with slower cruise missiles and hoping some MRBMs can make it through.

I’ve read of US/UK making intercepts over Jordan. Separately, reports of Houthi launches. All unconfirmed but plausible.

 

[GR66]

Timing checks out. They’ll be trying to overwhelm air defences with all the drones and with slower cruise missiles and hoping some MRBMs can make it through.

I’ve read of US/UK making intercepts over Jordan. Separately, reports of Houthi launches. All unconfirmed but plausible.

And what will Hezbollah do?

 

[brihard]

And what will Hezbollah do?

That’s a great question.

 

[GR66]

And we have our answer according to CNN:

Hezbollah says it launched dozens of rockets at IDF air defense headquarters​

From Hamdi Alkhshali

Lebanese group Hezbollah has claimed in a statement that its militants launched dozens of Katyusha rockets targeting the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) air defense headquarters in the Kaila barracks area of the Golan Heights.
In a statement, Hezbollah declared its support for the Palestinian people in Gaza and their resistance against Israeli attacks on civilian areas.
Hezbollah said that the attack was carried out at 12:35 a.m. local time on Sunday.

 

[brihard]

Iran’s delegation to the UN seems to be claiming this is a one and done in reprisal for Damascus, which much checks out. If Israel comes out of this unscathed they may even simply mock Iran but let things simmer down, at least in plain sight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779269993043022053

 

[GR66]

Iran’s delegation to the UN seems to be claiming this is a one and done in reprisal for Damascus, which much checks out. If Israel comes out of this unscathed they may even simply mock Iran but let things simmer down, at least in plain sight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779269993043022053

I hope you're right but what country will allow another country to directly attack their territory and not respond?

 

[brihard]

I hope you're right but what country will allow another country to directly attack their territory and not respond?

Israel is very good at tailoring responses to larger strategic ends, and not all responses need be kinetic. If Israel punches back it’ll be very calculated. If Israel does not punch back it will likely be even more calculated.

 

[GR66]

Reports of intercepts over Jerusalem and Sky News is reporting that Jordanian forces have shot down Iranian drones overflying their country.

Jordanian jets shoot down dozens of Iranian drones - reports​

Jordanian jets have shot down dozens of Iranian drones, two regional security sources have told Reuters.
The drones were intercepted while flying across northern and central Jordan, they said.
It comes after reports suggested US and British warplanes have downed some drones over the Iraqi-Syria border area.
Sources have confirmed to Sky News that RAF jets have been involved in the defence of Israel.