Forces brace for Afghan casualties
Car bombs, suicide attacks favourite tactics in Canada's new battleground
a journalist
The Ottawa Citizen
July 4, 2005
CREDIT: Cpl Lou Penney, 3 PPCLI BG
Cpl. Timothy Wilson of the Third Battalion Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry Battle Group provides perimeter security after exiting a Chinook during operations in 2002, about 100 kilometres from Kandahar. Canada is about to begin a new mission in the region, shifting operations from Kabul. Canadian casualties are expected as Taliban resistance forces have claimed they will focus on suicide bombings to inflict more damage on foreign militaries, aid workers and Afghan officials.
Canadian troops set to begin a new mission in Afghanistan in a hotbed of Taliban resistance could be walking into what insurgents hope will be a mirror image of the Iraq war, complete with suicide attacks and high casualty counts.
Afghan and U.S. military officials are warning that attacks in the south Asian country are on the rise and expected to increase further in what some defence analysts suggest is a push by the Taliban and al-Qaeda to turn the country into another Iraq. The strategy is simple: Use suicide attacks and car bombings to inflict as many casualties on foreign troops and Afghan government officials.
Between now and the fall, Canada will shift its operations from Kabul to the Kandahar region, the birthplace of the deposed Taliban regime. By February, more than 1,500 troops will be in Kandahar.
The first soldiers, temporarily sent to prepare the base, are already heading to Afghanistan. They will be followed by the members of the 250-strong Provincial Reconstruction Team, or PRT, the first of those to arrive in late July.
In addition, about 700 troops from Canadian Forces Base Petawawa will be sent to Kabul in early August to help with security for the Afghan elections in September. Once that job is done, most of those soldiers will move down to Kandahar and in February will be replaced by a much larger group.
Attacks by enemy forces in the relatively safe confines of Kabul have already claimed the lives of three Canadian soldiers. In 2003, two soldiers were killed by a roadside explosive device, while a third died last year in a suicide bombing.
Senator Colin Kenny, chairman of the Senate defence committee, says Canada's new mission to Kandahar will increase the likelihood of combat -- and Canadian fatalities.
"As Mr. Rogers might say, 'this isn't a very nice neighbourhood,' " Mr. Kenny said of the Kandahar area, which he recently toured.
He notes Canadian troops will face a collection of Taliban and al-Qaeda forces as well as bandits and drug lords. Mr. Kenny said the military is well aware of the potential for causalities and has informed the Martin government of its estimate of how many soldiers could be killed or wounded, although that figure isn't being released.
Canada's allies have already suffered. Over the last 90 days, fighting or suicide attacks have left 46 U.S. soldiers and 43 Afghan police dead. The latest attack involved the downing of a U.S. Special Forces helicopter this week by the Taliban, with 16 Americans on board believed killed. Another 125 civilians have died in the renewed fighting while the death toll for the Taliban and al-Qaeda stands at an estimated 465 insurgents.
See AFGHAN on PAGE A12
Afghan: Canada won't be 'hunting' Taliban
Continued from PAGE A1
In early June, Afghan's defence minister, Rahim Wardak, warned that al-Qaeda was preparing to ramp up its attacks, running a parallel front to Iraq and using suicide bombing tactics it had honed in that Middle East country. The main goal appears to be disrupting the September elections and the defence minister predicted a rough several months leading up to the vote.
Afghan intelligence officials have concentrated on trying to track six Arabs who slipped over the border in May and June. Two were killed after they conducted suicide attacks against U.S. troops and in a mosque. Twenty people, including senior Afghan government officials, died in the June 1 mosque attack in Kandahar. The second suicide bomber attacked a U.S. military convoy in Kandahar on June 13, wounding four soldiers.
In April, the Taliban released an audiotape to the Reuters news agency detailing how it was going to alter tactics to inflict more damage on foreign militaries, aid workers and Afghan officials. Instead of guerrilla operations, the Taliban would concentrate on suicide bombings, the tape warned. "The change of tactics is an easy way for us to have a longer-term war of attrition and would also not cost many lives for us," Maulvi Abdul Kabir, second in command of Taliban forces, announced in the broadcast.
U.S. military officials continue to remain positive about the Afghan war, but even they warn the worst is yet to come. Three months ago, the senior U.S. general in Afghanistan said he believed the bulk of Taliban forces would eventually put down their arms as they negotiated a peace agreement with the Afghan government. But Lt.-Gen. David Barno also warned that hard-core Taliban could become more desperate and, within six to nine months, launch a large-scale attack.
Other nations are beefing up their firepower and forces in the Kandahar region. British Special Air Service commandos are heading to the province to lay the groundwork for the deployment of more than 5,000 troops there. They will also be joined by special forces from Australia.
Terrorism specialist John Thompson, while acknowledging the Kandahar mission is highly dangerous, predicts the al-Qaeda and Taliban plan of trying to establish Afghanistan as the new Iraq will backfire. "Their problem is when they are confronting western troops in the field, they lose a lot more people than they cause casualties," said Mr. Thompson, president of the Toronto-based Mackenzie Institute.
In Iraq, the insurgents are losing about 12 to 15 fighters for every one U.S. soldier they kill, he added. "If they want to come after us, if they want to take a more aggressive posture, then good," Mr. Thompson said. "At the current rate of exchange that means they'll burn out faster."
PRT commander Col. Steve Bowes said his troops, most from Canadian Forces Base Edmonton, will patrol mainly in Kandahar city and its immediate surroundings, but will also venture to other parts of the region. The PRT will have members of the RCMP, Foreign Affairs department, and the Canadian International Development Agency assigned to it as it tries to gain the trust and confidence of the Afghan people and focus on "security sector reform," said Col. Bowes.
That means Canadian troops will be working with the Afghan national army and police, conducting patrols in armoured G-Wagens, jeep-like vehicles recently purchased by the military. Col. Bowes said PRT soldiers will support Afghan security forces, but will be more in the background.
The mission, he added, is not combat, but the officer noted that his troops won't shy away from a fight if necessary. "We're not in the business of hunting Taliban," Col. Bowes said. "Canadian soldiers never go out looking for a fight, but let's be clear -- we'll go out ready for one. We'll have to have that aspect of force protection down pat."
As for the potential for increased danger to Canadians in Kandahar, the colonel notes that there is risk in everything military personnel do. He said that while there have been suicide bombings and other incidents in the Kandahar region, there have also been recent attacks in Kabul. "What we have to do is to mitigate that risk," Col. Bowes explained. "One way we've done it is to make sure the soldiers are well trained."
"When it comes to the NATO professional armies, our soldiers don't walk in the shadow of anyone," he added.
Mr. Kenny believes Canadians understand there will be increased risks in the new Afghanistan mission and accept that troops have a tough and dangerous job.
The danger has also not escaped the Liberal government. On June 23, Defence Minister Bill Graham reassured the Commons about the Kandahar operation. In fact, he predicted the mission would be a success, even before it started.
"Under the leadership of Gen. Hillier, who was the ISAF commander in Afghanistan, and a recognized expert in the area, our forces will be trained, they will be equipped and they will acquit themselves in what will be a dangerous, but ultimately successful, mission for this country and for the development of peace in the world," he told the Commons.
Those in the defence community, as well as soldiers' families, are fervently hoping so.
