US Rocket Plan scares Nfld's Williams and he's Fuming!

[JBP]

:

Okay, first he takes down the Canadian flag at his own government buildings, fighting for his land's oil. Now he uses every stupid excuse he can to stop oil production? Is he just trying to cause trouble or what? What is this guys' problem? I've never ever heard of any boosters that fall back to earth ever hurting any humans. Doesn't mean it hasn't happened mind you, but a 1 in a trillion chance??? C'mon!!! I mean, I'm all for thinking the Americans are evil and all, but I don't think they'd do it if they truly felt they'd be endangering any Canadian lives seriously, our relations are strained as is. And if they wanted to kill Canadians, they don't need to launch rockets to do it, that's for sure... They have Maj. Fighter pilots dropping bombs for that!

In all seriousness though, is his pissing and moaning really helpful at all or needed? I think this guy just loves to make waves, nevermind avoid them...


U.S. rocket plan has Nfld.'s Williams fuming

CTV.ca News Staff

Newfoundland and Labrador's premier is advising hundreds of oil workers to evacuate offshore platforms beginning Thursday over fears of debris from a U.S. rocket launch.

The launch, now scheduled for April 17, will see a booster from a Titan IV rocket fall back into the North Atlantic Ocean.

The booster weighs about 10,000 kilograms and is seven storeys tall.

The risk of an accident harming humans has been placed by some at one trillion to one, with the Hibernia platform 11 kilometres from the furthest likely splashdown point. Hibernia is 315 km southeast of St. John's.

But Premier Danny Williams said Sunday: "It's the one is the number that's that important. ... if there's a one chance that something could happen out there ... with regard to human lives and human safety, that's simply not acceptable."

Williams also said, "We don't have any idea of what the consequences of that size of an object dropping in the ocean are.

"We have not been told what the effect would be on the wave action or the ocean floor. We haven't been given the full ecological impact, so at this point we're not getting answers to the question that I want answered."

Launch delays

The launch -- which is to place a satellite in orbit for the Pentagon -- was supposed to take place Monday, but then was pushed back to Wednesday after Williams went public.

However, citing unspecified "technical reasons," the U.S. Air Force has now delayed the launch even further.

But the delays have done nothing to allay Williams' anger.

After a meeting between Canadian and U.S. officials in Halifax on Saturday, the premier told reporters Sunday that he has more questions than answers.

"The Americans walked away from the meeting thinking that's it, Newfoundland and Labrador are going to be satisfied -- that we have enough information and they can go ahead. They're dead wrong," he said.

Williams was also miffed because oil executives and the province's risk analyst were excluded from part of the meeting.

"When they have the information and don't provide it and exclude half of the people invited for the primary meeting, I have some very serious concerns,'' he said.

The office of federal Public Safety Minister Anne McLellan, meanwhile, called it "a good discussion.

"The Americans have been very forthcoming and Canadian officials will consider the information,'' said spokesperson Alex Swann.

However, he said Canadian officials are still trying to convince the Americans to change the rocket's flight path.

American officials insist there is very little danger posed by the launch and have no plans to change the rocket's trajectory.

The Canada-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board had already begun preparations to evacuate Hibernia and Terra Nova oil platforms, plus an offshore drill rig.

Production at both locations would have to temporarily stop and over 400 offshore workers would have to be moved to safety.

The shutdown would last at least two weeks. The economic impact of that is estimated at $250 million.

But U.S. officials point out that oil rigs off California's coast have faced similar risks from rocket launches, yet have never shut down production and evacuated.

Williams said he will be outlining his concerns in a letter to McLellan on Monday, plus consult with oil industry officials.

"We're going to maintain contact with both governments so we can understand exactly what is going on," said Alan Jeffers, a spokesman for ExxonMobil.

"If we felt it was necessary, we would have sufficient time to evacuate," he added.

With a report from CTV's John Vennavally-Rao and files from The Canadian Press

 

[George Wallace]

I think he is 'pushing it' a bit.  The "Danger Template" comes within 11 Km of the nearest platform.  Those Templates are usually 'overly' safety conscience.  The US and other Nations have been putting Rockets into Space for how long now?  How many instances have we heard of a Booster Rocket coming down on a Ship, Oil Platform or even hitting an Aircraft in flight?  The Americans have been firing rockets over California and its' Oil Platforms for years and has so far managed to miss all of them.  The same can be said about the Oil Platforms in the Caribbean and off Florida not to mention all those Cruise ships.  I think he has panicked too much on this one.

 

[Island Ryhno]

:

Joe, if you're going to post something, you should at least know wtf your talking about before you do it. It wasn't Williams who started this, it was the oil companies. The companies then asked Williams to intervene as a political means which he did. Explain to me why we as a province would want to generate a $250 million dollar loss by stopping rig production. That's right we wouldn't, also as a matter of fact Petro Canada who owns the Terra Nova platform said it would still evacuate their people if the americans launch. If you are looking for someone to bash, know what you're bashing first. 11km is a wide area, would you want to be on a floating oil rig in the middle of the atlantic ocean while a 10,000kg 7 story object falls from the sky in your near vicinity? The atlantic ocean and life on an oil rig is precarious at the best of times, anything that's rocks the boat is not welcomed.  :

 

[Trinity]

And if they wanted to kill Canadians, they don't need to launch rockets to do it, that's for sure... They have Maj. Fighter pilots dropping bombs for that!

Maybe i'm just overly sensitive.

But to use the death of my friend as a punchline to one of your jokes, doesn't seem appropriate.
Especially in a military forum where I know that other people here lost friends in that accident.

 

[a_majoor]

Ah, the power of "Junk Science".

The oil companies own their platforms and can do what they want in terms of shutting things down or maintaining production, but the Preimier can hire high priced help (these so called "risk analysts") who could point out the various things that have been said here (1 in a trillion etc.).

Just a point, the entire launch stack is 7 stories tall and weighs 10,000 kg, each individual stage weighs a lot less, and when it is dropped off it is also empty of fuel. What is falling from the sky is essentially a high tech "tetra pack" made of aluminum, and since it will not be pressurized (all fuel expended) the most likely scenario is it will disintegrate in the atmosphere. When the American Skylab,  Russian Mir space station or the American Space Shuttle disintegrated in re-entry, only a few of the most solid and best protected parts made it to the ground in one piece.

So instead of a hollywood scenario, the crew of the oil rig might see something like a small meteor shower far out on the horizon.

 

[NavalGent]

if you're going to post something, you should at least know wtf your talking about before you do it.

  would you want to be on a floating oil rig in the middle of the Atlantic ocean while a 10,000kg 7 story object falls from the sky in your near vicinity?

Although its just semantics, but I'm quite sure that the Hibernia platform isn't floating, but rather resting comfortably on a big concrete column.

Furthermore, Williams may not have been who started it (I'll trust your word on that one), but he does seem quite passionate about it. If he's that concerned about something that unlikely, why doesn't he implement drastic changes to curb the risk of car accidents, lightning strikes, bear attacks, etc. which are far more likely to happen.

He's acting as though the rocket is aimed at one of the platforms.

 

[Infanteer]

And if they wanted to kill Canadians, they don't need to launch rockets to do it, that's for sure... They have Maj. Fighter pilots dropping bombs for that!

Recruit Joe, this is your last warning - you have the tendency to make flippant remarks on these forums that peg you for a 15-year old goofball.  Keep it up and I'll put a muzzle on you.

Grow up.

 

[Rfn]

The oil company executives may have expressed concern, but according to the article, it was the premier that is advising the crew of the oil rig to evacuate in the event of a launch:

Newfoundland and Labrador's premier is advising hundreds of oil workers to evacuate offshore platforms beginning Thursday over fears of debris from a U.S. rocket launch.

The earlier discussions on this board on Newfoundland and offshore resources left me sympathetic, but it's becoming clear to me that Williams is a bit of a media-hungry drama queen.

 

[Rfn]

Hey, if anyone from NASA is reading this, Churchill in northern Manitoba has been used for rocket research for years. If launching satellites from Newfoundland is no longer viable, consider relocating. I'm sure we'd love to have you over here.

 

[Thirstyson]

Hey, if anyone from NASA is reading this, Churchill in northern Manitoba has been used for rocket research for years. If launching satellites from Newfoundland is no longer viable, consider relocating. I'm sure we'd love to have you over here.

While I too would love to see NASA launch some rockets from Canada (we have good latitudes for polar orbits), this was a classified NRO satellite being launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

 

[TCBF]

"Maybe i'm just overly sensitive.

But to use the death of my friend as a punchline to one of your jokes, doesn't seem appropriate.
Especially in a military forum where I know that other people here lost friends in that accident."

You are being overly sensitive.  I don't think he said anything that much out of line with what was said on OP Cherokee Sky in Zabul Prov in Jul 2002, when we made ref to being glad to have US B52s, Predator, Apaches and Chinooks, but "no F16s yet, thank God."

Gallows humour is Soldier humour, and I believe hauling out our own individual hurts and sorrows to make a point in an otherwise mundane argument does more diservice to the fallen than the original post allegedly did.

And yes, I was in Kandahar.  Yes, the bomb shook my Coyote.  Yes, I rolled out in the dark as QRF.
Yes, I saw what it looked like with the glow sticks in the dark and, yes, in the daylight.

A tragedy to be sure.  

We must remember our dead, and honour them.
But,  we miust not wallow in our own self-pity.  

Tom

 

[Rfn]

While I too would love to see NASA launch some rockets from Canada (we have good latitudes for polar orbits), this was a classified NRO satellite being launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

Thirtyson: Thanks for the clarification, but if the launch is from Cape Canaveral, that makes Williams look even more ridiculous. Thats my $ 0.02 ( as a non rocket-surgeon ;D)

 

[Infanteer]

But,  we miust not wallow in our own self-pity.  

Place and a time, Tom - and Recruit Joe hasn't got the spurs for the sarcasm he throws around these threads.

 

[Island Ryhno]

Apparantely some people didn't get the know what you're talking about part before they starting bashing bit of my rant. Some people don't even know what this is about and they're running their mouth, learn the facts before you insert your foot into your mouth. C-NOFPB is the governing body of the Newfoundland offshore oil resources, it sent the information to the oil companies (Petro Can, Glomar etc) who responded with the evacuation plans and the warning specifically was issued by Exxon-Mobil Corp. Also people are taking only what they want out of this story, Williams asked the US DOD for specific information and keeps getting partial answers, first it was within 11 miles, then 25 miles, then who knows. The DOD has a marine box grid in which supposedly there is a one in a million chance of being hit by debris, outside that box the risk is one in a trillion, the Hibernia platform is 1 mile outside that box. Also in the near vicinity is the Glomar Explorer and White Rose/Terra Nova platform. One in a million are big odds, what if it does strike, then what. There would be incredible loss of life, money and the environmental impact would be devastating. I wonder if this situation was being played out over Fort McMurray and Ralph Klein was making the noise would it all be for show as has been stated. This province is no longer a walk over, Danny Williams doesn't need the publicity, he is a self made millionaire who joined politics after watching his beloved province sink under years of mismanagement under a liberal government. Mr Williams is fighting for a province and people have a problem with it, sorry that doesn't fly anymore, we will no longer be the doormats for anyone.

 

[DJ]

"Williams was also miffed because oil executives and the province's risk analyst were excluded from part of the meeting."

If everything is fine and this is just a case of Williams hyping this up, why were these people barred??  When we're considering lengthy trajectories of a space association, 11 miles is a drop in the bucket, (excuse the pun).  NASA doesn't have a spotless track record and the consequences of not being vigiliant could be mind-blowing. 

DJ

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Actually Ryhno, I just read through everything I could find and NONE of your numbers seem to correspond with what I read,....just another excuse to badmouth the rest of Canada?

Lighten up with the "doormat" rhetoric, lad.

 

[Infanteer]

The DOD has a marine box grid in which supposedly there is a one in a million chance of being hit by debris, outside that box the risk is one in a trillion, the Hibernia platform is 1 mile outside that box. Also in the near vicinity is the Glomar Explorer and White Rose/Terra Nova platform. One in a million are big odds, what if it does strike, then what.

So if Hibernia, Glomar Explorer, and White Rose/Terra Nova are outside of the box, then the odds of them being hit would be one in one trillion, wouldn't it?   ???

Sounds like, in reality, the odds are about as even as Hibernia:

- having a piece of Soviet space junk fall on it
- having a meteor (complete with Bruce Willis) demolish it
- being attacked and destroyed by a pod of Narwhals

Are any of these worth the political posturing?

Mr Williams is fighting for a province and people have a problem with it, sorry that doesn't fly anymore, we will no longer be the doormats for anyone.

Oh, not this again - spare us the "Everyone hates Newfoundland" spiel.   Looking at the figures, 4 out of 6 of your MP's are Liberal; who's fault was that?   So much for Newfoundlander solidarity against the rest of Canada....

 

[Island Ryhno]

Proposed rocket launch spurs more concern for Nfld. offshore platforms

Fri Apr 8, 6:34 PM ET 

DENE MOORE

ST. JOHN'S, Nfld. (CP) - Oil platforms off Newfoundland's coast will be evacuated by early next week if the U.S. goes ahead with plans to launch a rocket that will shed space junk in Canadian waters, even though the Americans say the risk is one in a trillion.
Canadian oil companies had hoped the U.S. Defence Department would change the rocket's flight path in light of their concerns that a spent booster rocket weighing 10,000 kilogram could fall within 25 kilometres of the Hibernia oil platform.
He said the command compiles extensive safety risk calculations on all trajectories and devises an impact safety "box" based on atmospheric conditions, space debris and other variables.
Inside that box, the chance of personal injury from impact is one in a million, Doi said. Outside the box, he said, there is a one-in-a-trillion chance of impact.
"The Hibernia platform is one mile outside the impact box," Doi told The Canadian Press. "Safety is a top priority for us and we do a thorough safety check on all of our boosters when we plot trajectories over international waters."
"Information seems to be inconsistent, seems to be all over the place, and it's causing me some concern," Williams told reporters.
If the Hibernia platform is evacuated, all oil has to be removed from the platform. Wells will have to be capped and the lines flushed before crew are transported back to shore by helicopter.
It could take up to two weeks, meaning an economic loss of $250 million.
The Hibernia platform is about 315 kilometres southeast of St. John's and has 234 crew onboard.
Another major offshore development, the Terra Nova floating platform, 350 kilometres east of the city, is in the general vicinity, and there is ongoing drilling for another project nearby.
The Terra Nova floating platform is staffed by about 80, and the drilling rig Glomar Grand Banks has approximately 100 people on board.

Those are the numbers Bruce, I edited the whole story to just get you the numbers, aren't I nice. Also where did I bad mouth Canada?? Infanteer I can't argue the facts, indeed there are 4 of 6 that are Liberal, I voted PC, Norm Doyle as a matter of fact so the Liberals in Ottawa can hardly be attributed to me now can it? As for the odds of strike, well like everyone else (Oil companies, Government, Workers) is the 1 worth the risk? I don't know, obviously in the profession that is the army the odds are stacked much higher against you guys, so perhaps it doesn't seem that risky to you, but to all who have a vested interest it is and as such is very much worth the political posturing.

 

[Infanteer]

Also where did I bad mouth Canada??

I think the "Doormat" comment implied that the rest of Canada liked to shit on Newfoundland (which was the hot topic a few months ago).

Infanteer I can't argue the facts, indeed there are 4 of 6 that are Liberal, I voted PC, Norm Doyle as a matter of fact so the Liberals in Ottawa can hardly be attributed to me now can it?

No, but Newfoundland's troubles with the Federal Government (or the Rest of Canada) can hardly be attributed to anyone else except your fellow citizens of the Rock (and Labrador, of course) who helped to give the Liberals another mandate.

As for the odds of strike, well like everyone else (Oil companies, Government, Workers) is the 1 worth the risk? I don't know, obviously in the profession that is the army the odds are stacked much higher against you guys, so perhaps it doesn't seem that risky to you, but to all who have a vested interest it is and as such is very much worth the political posturing.

Well, if the odds are truly 1 in 1 trillion, then I'm not too worried.  You ask if that 1 chance is worth the risk - well judging from the Offshore Drilling Industry and how inherently dangerous it is, I would assume that the risk of a rocket booster falling on a platform is low on the list (probably with a Narwhal attack) compared to other things.  If they are going to pack it in (with the resultant economic loss) over worry about this, then how do they handle things like the likelihood of explosions, hazardous work environment, catastrophic mechanical failure, and a litany of other things that are probably more likely to cause a problem.

That being said, I am wondering why the US cannot simply change the course a bit - is it a big effort to do so?  They've been firing these things around for years, so why is this suddenly an issue?

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

This province is no longer a walk over....
we will no longer be the doormats for anyone......

...no, sounds like a resounding endorsement to me. :

...and every other article that I scanned said one in 10 trillion chance, not your one in a trillion and in your original post you quoted it as one in a million.