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Ukraine - Superthread

Kirkhill

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And a Forbes report on the effect of hypothermia on the Russians



AEROSPACE & DEFENSE

Russian Soldiers Are Freezing To Death In Eastern Ukraine​

David Axe
Forbes Staff
I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
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Nov 27, 2022,08:00am EST
Russians huddle in a trench as a drone bomb explodes among them.

Russians huddle in a trench as a drone bomb explodes among them.
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

The Ukrainian army has deployed some of its best brigades to eastern Ukraine, including the 92nd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades and the 1st Presidential Brigade.

But these elite Ukrainian formations might not be the biggest killer of Russian troops in the east. Under-trained, under-supplied and ambivalently led, Russians in the region are freezing to death by the dozen.

Shocking videos that have circulated online in recent weeks tell a tragic story. The videos, shot by the Ukrainian brigades’ hovering drones, depict Russians in the late stages of hypothermia, so cold and sick that they barely react when the drones drop lethal improvised bombs on them.

Thomas Theiner, an ex-soldier who currently is a filmmaker in Kyiv, predicted winter “would kill more Russian soldiers than Ukraine ever could.” He may have been right.

Winters in Ukraine start wet and cold then get colder and drier. Eastern Ukraine still is in the wet-cold phase—and it’s brutal. Deep mud mires armored vehicles. Daytime temperatures hover around freezing and during the night they dip closer to zero degrees Fahrenheit.

With preparation, sound leadership and reliable logistics, the conditions are survivable. Soldiers bundle up, sleep in roofed, heated trenches with floors, frequently change their wet socks and eat twice as much as they would on warm days. When they get sick, they evacuate to the rear for rest.
The problem for the Russian army is that more and more of its troops are untrained draftees. Officers aren’t leading from the front. And Russian logistics are strained by nonstop Ukrainian bombardment. Starving draftees with no gloves or good boots are huddling in shallow, unheated trenches while their officers squat in abandoned houses potentially miles away, unaware or uncaring as their soldiers succumb to the elements.


When you’re wet, hungry and exposed to the nighttime cold, it doesn’t take long for hypothermia to set in. One bad night is enough. Even moderate hypothermia can cause confusion, decreased reflexes and loss of motor skills in sufferers.
Which explains the drone massacre that’s been playing out lately over contested eastern towns such as Svatove, Pavlivka and Bakhmut. Hypothermic Russian troops aren’t even trying to flee when Ukraine’s bomb-armed quadcopter drones buzz overhead. The soldiers barely flinch when a bomb explodes in their fighting position.
Suicides evidently are on the rise. One especially gut-wrenching video depicts a Russian combatant in scrape outside Bakhmut trying to shoot himself in the chest as a Ukrainian drone watches from directly overhead. The Russian’s ungloved right hand is blue with cold, and he struggles to pull the trigger.
The video feed cuts. When we see the Russian again, he apparently has succeeded in killing himself. He doesn’t move when the drone’s bomb explodes beside him.
It’s hard to say for sure how many Russians have died of the cold. But it’s worth noting that just one Russian marine unit, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, reportedly lost as many as 500 killed and 400 wounded in just the last three months fighting around Pavlivka. That’s potentially half the brigade’s original strength.

A nearly one-to-one killed-to-wounded ratio—one to three is normal—speaks to the collapse of Russian leadership ... and to the cold. Wounded troops, lying exposed to the elements, are dying before anyone bothers to rescue them.
Expect many, many more Russians to freeze to death as the weather gets worse. As the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted on Saturday, temperatures are forecasted to drop throughout Ukraine over the next week.
 

Kirkhill

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Reported Russian troop movements in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia


On December 1, the armed forces of Ukraine made an official announcement for the first time that Russia is beginning to withdraw its forces from the territories of the bank of the Dnieper river opposite the city of Kherson, which is currently the main front line of the occupiers in the south, informs the media "Reuters".

The statement provided only limited information and did not mention that Ukrainian forces had crossed the river. Officials in Kyiv also stressed that Russia had increased the intensity of shelling and strikes from the opposite coast, causing another blackout in Kherson, where power was restored just three weeks ago.

Since Russia's withdrawal from Kherson last month, the Dnieper River now forms Ukraine's southern buffer zone.

Russia has ordered civilians to leave towns within 15 kilometers of the river and withdrawn its civilian administration from occupied Nova Kahovka. Ukrainian officials have previously stated that Russia has also withdrawn part of the artillery near the river to safer positions further away, reports "Reuters".

"A decrease in the number of Russian soldiers and military equipment is also observed in the city of Oleshku," said representatives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, referring to the city opposite Kherson.

Most of the Russian troops stationed in the region are recently mobilized reservists, indicating that Moscow 's best-trained professional troops have already left the area, Reuters writes.


According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the Russians are withdrawing their military from the village of Mykhailivka, the city of Polohy and the village of Inzhenerne in the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast; they offer local residents in the village of Burchak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the opportunity to evacuate.
 

Kirkhill

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And Crimean SitRep 2

Russia maintains significant military reserves in Crimea​

Crimea Ukraine War with Russia
Russia maintains significant reserves in the north of occupied Crimea to strengthen its groups fighting in Ukraine.

During a briefing at the Military Media Center, Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff, shared this information.

“The enemy maintains reserves in the north of occupied Crimea to strengthen its troop groups in the Naddnipriansk and Orikhiv directions. The city of Dzhankoi and the surrounding areas have actually turned into the largest military base on the temporarily occupied territory of the Crimean peninsula, from where Russian occupation forces, weapons, and military equipment are being redeployed from the Russian Federation,” Oleksii Hromov said.


The Brigadier General stated that, according to intelligence, about 750 pieces of weapons and military equipment are located in the field park in the Medvedivka settlement of the Dzhankoi district.

He emphasized that the priority for the Russian Federation remains maintaining positions in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and at the transport “corridor” to the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea.

It is worth noting that there has long been a powerful logistics center for the Russian troops near the city of Dzhankoi, and a repair base was created on the basis of it to restore the damaged equipment of the invaders.

In June, the publication Krym Realii reported that the Russian military started to develop a base in the Dzhankoi area.


Пошкоджена військова техніка Росії у районі Джанкоя. Липень 2022. Окупований Крим. Фото: @horevica
Russian military equipment was damaged near Dzhankoi. July 2022. Occupied Crimea. Photo credits: @horevica
A temporary deployment point was set up on the outskirts of the village of Novostepove.

The correspondents noticed military trucks, towed howitzers, armored personnel carriers, and radar and communication equipment near the Simferopol-Dzhankoi highway. There is also a tent camp near the plantation.

In August, Ukrainian troops destroyed one of the Russian military bases near Dzhankoi.

Polish_20220817_084848910.png
Detonation of ammunition at a Russian logistics center near Dzhankoi, Autonomous Republic of Crimea, August 16, 2022
Weapons and ammunition were loaded on echelons at this railway station of the logistics center to supply Russian invasion forces in Ukraine.

As a result of the sabotage, Russian military equipment was destroyed, in particular, the Grad MLRS and depots with various artillery ammunition.

 

CBH99

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Mods - probably a good time for a thread split.


Roger I thought that was what you where getting at - I just like to belabor points ;)


I still think that buying into US DOD Programs at Ground Zero makes more sense, as one can get significant Industrial Offsets in being a partner.
There is absolutely nothing in the US Inventory that Canada couldn't use - some items maybe not practical for a smaller military (CVN's for example as the RCN could basically crew the Ford and would need to call it a day beyond that) - but the items themselves could be used.

Sometimes working with a US Program at certain points even can generate a PIP or Block II, and satisfies the OEM, the US based Customer and the CAF, isn't that right @Good2Golf

When one sees the extreme deficit of equipment that the average Canadian Soldier has just at the individual level, and then what is missing as one moves up to larger formations, then looks at the cost of what was spent on the deficient, or insignificant quantity etc items the CAF does or does not have and sees what the equivalent items are in DOD, the CAF budget could be used a lot more efficiently in working more seamlessly with DOD down here -- which is a win win for everyone - as the CAF doesn't need to spend as much, the CAF is better outfitted, and We down here don't resent you as a freeloader all the time...
Questions…

- What does the Canadian soldier, at the individual level, lack compared to their American counterpart?

- Bruh, have you seen who’s running our country right now? (Hint, literally one of the dumbest guys on Earth…)

Even if he fell out a window <please! oh please! 🙏🏻> the person who would replace him is even scarier than he is, for different reasons!

What you suggest makes sense, especially if we’re looking at individual kit. But good decisions aren’t our thing right now. Maybe try back in the spring to see if management has changed?
 

KevinB

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Questions…

- What does the Canadian soldier, at the individual level, lack compared to their American counterpart?
Decent Dual Tube NV, useful MFAL, Comms - wait, Comms again.
I can go on, but that's a fairly easy one, and while Canada might find a Bde Minus worth of those items, they are all pretty much obsolete - and don't exist outside of High Readiness or Deployed Battle Groups.

Then of course the ATGM, AD Layers, more than 4 Howitzers / Bde etc...

- Bruh, have you seen who’s running our country right now? (Hint, literally one of the dumbest guys on Earth…)

Even if he fell out a window <please! oh please! 🙏🏻> the person who would replace him is even scarier than he is, for different reasons!

What you suggest makes sense, especially if we’re looking at individual kit. But good decisions aren’t our thing right now. Maybe try back in the spring to see if management has changed?
The Army (and to a certain point the RCAF and RCN have deluded themselves as to operational equipment needs for quite some time.
 

Skysix

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Ukrainian electrical system a lot more resilient than feared.





For those of us that live, or have lived in BC, that have survived ice storms and hurricanes it shouldn't come as big a surprise as it might. Splicing lines, replacing poles and towers, swapping transformers..... routine maintenance.
Until you run out of transmission line transformers. Those take more than a few minutes to build.
 

Skysix

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While they may be willing to be agents now, will they always be? That said, we need to get back in the HumInt game. If for no other reason than to prevent the levels of inaccurate technically based/acquired intellegence that gave us Iraqi WMD, the strong Afghan government and the mighty Russian Army.

Tinkers, Tailors and the odd mobilised Soldier should take note.


Disclaimer: this message was definitely not approved by John LaCarre
 

Skysix

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Company "commanded" by a Sgt definitely not lead. These poor guys are f'd.

 

Czech_pivo

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Company "commanded" by a Sgt definitely not lead. These poor guys are f'd.

Its the same theme over and over again and again - abandoned - no equipment - broken equipment - shitty commanders - no training - crappy food or little food - bad accommodations or lacking proper equipment to sleep in the rough - no comms - no idea of what's expected of them - poor morale - little discipline - the list goes on and on.

But here's the thing - never once do you hear even the slightest hint of munity, never once do you hear them say, "good people, loved ones, avenge us, rise up and overthrow those in power who have caused us all this misery, all this pain and suffering." You NEVER hear that at all. It's only "good people, help us get better equipment or tell the leaders to do a better job with us so we can get on with the job at hand. Look, we're still here, we've not surrendered, we've not ran back home."

So, do I feel 'sorry' for these guys - to be honest, no - no I don't. And the reason is they still don't understand that their situation is directly the result of their shitty, corrupt leaders who put them in the direct situation that they are currently in. These guys still believe in all the propaganda that they've been fed since Putin seized power. They still want to 'do the right thing' and finish the job in the Ukraine, but they are not being given the right tools, the right leaders to do it. Until you start seeing the above video where its being filmed from a Ukrainian POW cage and all the complaining is being done in the same manner but instead of saying "we as a group decided to surrender because of a lack of food, lack of equipment, leaders that ran away, being shelled by our own troops, etc, etc" - none of this matter and they sure as shit don't have my sympathy.
 

Good2Golf

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The Army (and to a certain point the RCAF and RCN have deluded themselves as to operational equipment needs for quite some time.
Or even if they have it, its use is suspect, to wit some RCAF using NVG for higher level transit and ops, then flipping up the goggles and flying un-aided (eyes and white light only) near the ground. 😵‍💫
 

Furniture

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Its the same theme over and over again and again - abandoned - no equipment - broken equipment - shitty commanders - no training - crappy food or little food - bad accommodations or lacking proper equipment to sleep in the rough - no comms - no idea of what's expected of them - poor morale - little discipline - the list goes on and on.

But here's the thing - never once do you hear even the slightest hint of munity, never once do you hear them say, "good people, loved ones, avenge us, rise up and overthrow those in power who have caused us all this misery, all this pain and suffering." You NEVER hear that at all. It's only "good people, help us get better equipment or tell the leaders to do a better job with us so we can get on with the job at hand. Look, we're still here, we've not surrendered, we've not ran back home."

So, do I feel 'sorry' for these guys - to be honest, no - no I don't. And the reason is they still don't understand that their situation is directly the result of their shitty, corrupt leaders who put them in the direct situation that they are currently in. These guys still believe in all the propaganda that they've been fed since Putin seized power. They still want to 'do the right thing' and finish the job in the Ukraine, but they are not being given the right tools, the right leaders to do it. Until you start seeing the above video where its being filmed from a Ukrainian POW cage and all the complaining is being done in the same manner but instead of saying "we as a group decided to surrender because of a lack of food, lack of equipment, leaders that ran away, being shelled by our own troops, etc, etc" - none of this matter and they sure as shit don't have my sympathy.
Are Russians not saying those things, or are we just not seeing them say it? Also, how many who have said those sorts of things have gone MIA?

Fear is a powerful tool, and the Russians have lived in fear of the state for hundreds of years.
 
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