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RUMINT: Taliban to Limit Opium Smuggling, Crank Up Price?

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Rumours hit Afghan drug trade
Jon Boone, Financial Times, 19 Aug 08
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Traffickers on the Afghan-Pakistan border are dumping stocks of opium on rumours that the Taliban is preparing to crack down on poppy smuggling.

Farmers in Helmand and Kandahar, the two southern provinces at the heart of Afghanistan's booming drugs industry, report hearing a similar rumour, that poppy cultivation will be stopped by the Taliban next year. This may have started from an attempt by the insurgent movement to bolster opium prices for its financial benefit but which has now backfired.

In its latest survey of drug prices, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime reported that traffickers in Peshawar, the Pakistani border town that acts as a conduit for much of the drug supply coming out of Afghanistan, were reacting to "the threat coming from the Taliban who said they would stop drug business".

"We have heard these rumours for a couple of months now, but we would be surprised if the Taliban did do that because they rely on poppy to pay for the fight against foreign troops," Abdul Raziq, a farmer in Musa Qala, told the Financial Times.

Any attempt to crack down on the booming poppy industry might seem surprising considering the vital role it plays in funding the Taliban insurgency, although drug enforcement officials say the Taliban has always been unhappy about its reliance on revenue from an activity that is strictly forbidden in Islam.

Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UNODC, has estimated that the Taliban earned about $100m (€68m, £53.6m) in revenue last year by taxing traffickers.

Before the Taliban government's overthrow in Kabul in 2001, an effective poppy eradication campaign significantly increased the value of stockpiled opium, which can be kept for many years without deteriorating.

In recent years opium production has boomed, as farmers exploit the lawlessness and insecurity of Afghanistan's south to grow large poppy crops. This has caused the price of opium to hit rock bottom.

Last month saw the lowest recorded price yet for both fresh and dried opium. In early 2007, a kilogramme of fresh opium fetched $100; in July, it commanded just $58.

In a murky market highly susceptible to hearsay, the traffickers - or other local powerbrokers described by the catch-all term "Taliban" - could be spreading the crackdown rumour to discourage production.

Others experts are less certain, saying that estimated stockpiles of opium and heroin are so enormous that even a drastic decline in poppy cultivation next year would make little difference.

 
Discourage export will only result in more "local" consumption.... and doesn't Afghanistan have enough problems without this scourge?
 
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