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A Deeply Fractured US

KevinB

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DJT still doesn’t understand that fewer people voted for him in 2016 than actually just voted against HRC. In the same vein more voted against him in 2020 than simply those who voted for President Biden.

Trump just needs to go away.
 

Brad Sallows

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The three names I've seen most often in the past few months (other than Biden and Harris) are Newsom (Gov CA, has already denied he'll run), Whitmer (Gov MI), and Buttigieg. Any candidate who ran against Biden in the 2020 primary I'd presume to have already been deemed a lesser candidate than Biden c. 2020.
 

Edward Campbell

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Look for someone coming out of Hollywood. Name recognition; citing Schwarzenegger precedent; absolutely no political experience. Or maybe a drama teacher.
America Ferrera, Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep amongst many others ... IF, as The Economist recommends, Joe Biden decides to "walk away" from the presidency "on this own terms" without endorsing anyone.

While Ronald Reagan had "credentials" as the governor of California, Donald J Trump is living proof that Americans will vote for a totally unqualified celebrity.
 

Edward Campbell

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I was trying not to picture Johnny Depp or Kanye. ;)
I like what The Economist had to say. I think President Biden can walk away - without owing anyone anything - having arguably, "saved America" from a second Trump term and, very possibly, a Trump resurgence.

While I would hope that someone well grounded in politics and policy might emerge as a centrist/centre-right Democratic Party candidate (I suppose that should be center-right when talking about US politics), the US has been served by political novices (think e.g. Taylor, Hoover and Eisenhower). Taylor and Hoover are remembered for policy failures (slavery and the Great Depression) but not for lack of integrity.

I think that President Biden is intent on building a legacy - being better at America First than Trump ever was; I don't think he will have huge "coattails" on which VP Harris can coast to the nomination.

That being said, I think it is time that at least one party nominated another female. My choice would be Condi Rice running as a Democrat.
 

Blackadder1916

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America Ferrera, Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep amongst many others ... IF, as The Economist recommends, Joe Biden decides to "walk away" from the presidency "on this own terms" without endorsing anyone.

While Ronald Reagan had "credentials" as the governor of California, Donald J Trump is living proof that Americans will vote for a totally unqualified celebrity.

Celebrity may be a credential on its own. Granted, there is a current dearth of obvious Democratic Party candidates with the visibility to leap to the front of the pack so it may be a cycle or two for the cream to rise. Unfortunately, the other substance that naturally floats to the surface will also be there.

While still a relatively minor "political" celebrity, I would suggest that Senator Mark Kelly could be a viable future candidate for President. He checks a lot of the boxes that would attract the Democratic base as well as being potentially attractive to the unaffiliated centre.
 

Brad Sallows

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The Democratic party isn't centre-right at all, even by Canadian standards. The past few years the party leaders have essentially been weathervanes following the wind of the party's left vanguard, and it shows in the realignment of US voters (Democrats reaping more educated, more white, more prosperous). Contrast the positions of major leaders like Biden or Pelosi on major social issues with what their positions were a few years ago. If Canadian leftists are pushing the culture war in the elementary classrooms the way it's ongoing in the US, they're managing to pass completely under anyone's radar. Same with district attorneys in major cities determined to retain fewer proven criminals in custody. Fiscally, our centre-left leadership isn't pushing anywhere near the kind of money out the door that the US Congress has. That's why I singled out the attempt to forgive student debt. Some estimates pegged the cost at half a trillion. That's serious money, even for the US. Wherever that money comes from, for now it's uncommitted again and therefore can be re-used to promise someone, somewhere, something. Best to bank the bribe before casting the vote, though.
 

Brad Sallows

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Conventional wisdom in US politics is that governors are the preferred candidates, particularly if they governed one of the larger states. Not sure it counts as much now, with Biden and Obama both having been senators. But neither went up against a governor of a large state.
 

Brad Sallows

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I think that President Biden is intent on building a legacy - being better at America First than Trump ever was; I don't think he will have huge "coattails" on which VP Harris can coast to the nomination.

I don't see how he could be fitted to "America First". His energy policy alone has been disastrous, and that has had a lot of downstream effects because energy is a foundation of prosperity.
 

Edward Campbell

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I don't see how he could be fitted to "America First". His energy policy alone has been disastrous, and that has had a lot of downstream effects because energy is a foundation of prosperity.
He's actually as tough, maybe even tougher on China and Russia that Trump was. I agree with on some of his policies but, like all retail politicians, he has to payback his backers.
 

Edward Campbell

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The Democratic party isn't centre-right at all, even by Canadian standards. The past few years the party leaders have essentially been weathervanes following the wind of the party's left vanguard, and it shows in the realignment of US voters (Democrats reaping more educated, more white, more prosperous). Contrast the positions of major leaders like Biden or Pelosi on major social issues with what their positions were a few years ago. If Canadian leftists are pushing the culture war in the elementary classrooms the way it's ongoing in the US, they're managing to pass completely under anyone's radar. Same with district attorneys in major cities determined to retain fewer proven criminals in custody. Fiscally, our centre-left leadership isn't pushing anywhere near the kind of money out the door that the US Congress has. That's why I singled out the attempt to forgive student debt. Some estimates pegged the cost at half a trillion. That's serious money, even for the US. Wherever that money comes from, for now it's uncommitted again and therefore can be re-used to promise someone, somewhere, something. Best to bank the bribe before casting the vote, though.
I don't disagree, but I think there are, still, moderate, slightly right-of-centre Democrats and equally moderate, slightly left-of-centre Republicans. I think that political mushy-middle has, largely, gone silent rather than vanished. I suspect it can be coaxed out again by the right leaders. Maybe a celebrity, untainted by attachment to too many stupid socio-economic causes isn't such a bad idea.
 

daftandbarmy

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I don't disagree, but I think there are, still, moderate, slightly right-of-centre Democrats and equally moderate, slightly left-of-centre Republicans. I think that political mushy-middle has, largely, gone silent rather than vanished. I suspect it can be coaxed out again by the right leaders. Maybe a celebrity, untainted by attachment to too many stupid socio-economic causes isn't such a bad idea.

And political polarization is top of mind for alot of Americans...

3 In 10 Americans Named Political Polarization As A Top Issue Facing The Country​


Polarization and extremism ranked third across a list of 20 issues that we asked about in the latest FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll, which was conducted from May 26 to June 6. Using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, we interviewed the same 2,000 or so Americans from our previous survey, and of the 1,691 adults who responded, 28 percent named “political extremism or polarization” as one of the most important issues facing the country,1 trailing only “inflation or increasing costs” and “crime or gun violence,” the latter of which surged in the aftermath of mass shootings in Buffalo, New York, and Uvalde, Texas.

 

RangerRay

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I don't disagree, but I think there are, still, moderate, slightly right-of-centre Democrats and equally moderate, slightly left-of-centre Republicans. I think that political mushy-middle has, largely, gone silent rather than vanished. I suspect it can be coaxed out again by the right leaders. Maybe a celebrity, untainted by attachment to too many stupid socio-economic causes isn't such a bad idea.
Representatives Abigail Spanberger and Elissa Slotkin, former Representative Connor Lamb and Senator Joe Manchin come to mind. But are they presidential material? Like our Liberal Party, the Dems front bench strength isn’t looking good.
 

Blackadder1916

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Tally is in for the last of the Governor contests. Arizona flips to a Democrat.

Arizona Democrat Katie Hobbs elected governor over Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake​

PHOENIX – After days of ballot counting, Arizona Democrat Katie Hobbs has been elected governor in a hotly-contested race against election-denying Republican Kari Lake, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, according to a race call by The Associated Press.

The victory is a relief to Arizona Democrats, who spent much of the campaign wringing their hands over whether Hobbs – the current Secretary of State in Arizona – could defeat the made-for-TV Lake, who spent 22 years at a local Fox affiliate, much of it as a news anchor.

Most polls ahead of the elections showed Lake with a slight lead in the race. Lake showed a knack for garnering headlines while antagonizing reporters in her first-ever campaign. She ran on an unabashedly pro-Trump agenda – promising to declare an invasion along the southern border and voicing support for the state's pre-statehood abortion ban – alongside a slate of Trump-endorsed candidates who won their primaries in the swing state of Arizona.

Following the primary, Lake even boasted of driving "a stake in the heart of the McCain machine," an unfriendly nod to Arizona's conservative establishment that's been overrun by allies of Trump in Arizona.

For her part, Hobbs ran a far more subdued, traditional campaign, in a race she often described as a choice between "sanity and chaos."

Hobbs made national headlines, and faced withering criticism, for her refusal to debate Lake. Hobbs focused on messaging that would cross party lines and appeal to Arizona's influential independent voters, and even some Republicans who've grown tired of Trump. In 2020, Biden became just the second Democratic presidential candidate to win in Arizona since 1948.
 
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