Personalities aside.... a good thing for the CAF?

[jackamela]

Wondering what peoples' opinion is on the (probable) next US President signalling that he will pressure the Canadian government to make big investments in the military and, presumably, ramp up numbers.

Not really interested in anyone's personal opinion on Trump - let's stick to reactions to what it means for the CAF and its members.

 

[OldSolduer]

Short answer - it depends.

It depends on who is the GoC at that time

 

[Remius]

If PP is serious about balancing budgets and cutting deficit spending, then I expect it won’t matter what Trump says or threatens. It will be can kicking policies and announcements pushed beyond 4 year cycles.

Just like any other government in recent modern history.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I agree with Remius that the CPC will not want to spend to much on the military, other than maintain the existing new programs (F-35, P-8, CSC). However events may force their hand.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Short of Article 5, we aren't doing anything against our will.

 

[Furniture]

Short of Article 5, we aren't doing anything against our will.

I'm not sure. I can see allies pulling our strings with trade... The actual "soft power" our governments keep pretending they understand.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I'm not sure. I can see allies pulling our strings with trade... The actual "soft power" our governments keep pretending they understand.

That would require our governments to actually care about the impacts of being in the dog house. Our current one would try to pass it off as a good way to reconnect with Rover, and tout the benefits of sleeping in fresh air...

 

[GR66]

If Trump gets in I expect frosty relations between the US and Canada. Trump seriously dislikes Trudeau and doesn't forgive or forget slights

G7 summit ends in disarray as Trump abandons joint statement

President Trump lashes out at host Canada and retracts his endorsement of a joint statement.

www.bbc.com

I won't be surprised if there are significant economic impacts to Canada as a result of a Trump presidency. Not meeting or even intending to try to meet our 2% NATO target will just be one more thing that Trump will hold against us.

 

[McG]

Wondering what peoples' opinion is on the (probable) next US President signalling that he will pressure the Canadian government to make big investments in the military and, presumably, ramp up numbers.

Not really interested in anyone's personal opinion on Trump - let's stick to reactions to what it means for the CAF and its members.

It is probably bold to be calling Trump “next President” even with the caveat of “probable” at this stage.

If he wins, it will be nothing good for Canada. He is a bully who will stomp on norms of cross-border trade, and the MAGA camp has already floated the idea of influencing Canada through force. Any motivation to increase defence spending won’t be to do our bit for NATO but to balance against an authoritarian global superpower on our boarder.

 

[jackamela]

If Trump gets in I expect frosty relations between the US and Canada. Trump seriously dislikes Trudeau and doesn't forgive or forget slights

G7 summit ends in disarray as Trump abandons joint statement

President Trump lashes out at host Canada and retracts his endorsement of a joint statement.

www.bbc.com

I won't be surprised if there are significant economic impacts to Canada as a result of a Trump presidency. Not meeting or even intending to try to meet our 2% NATO target will just be one more thing that Trump will hold against us.

Do you think that equation would change if Poilievre becomes PM?

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Do you think that equation would change if Poilievre becomes PM?

I think Poilievre may emulate Trump's style of politics, but I do not foresee them sharing the same kind of political ideals.

Trump is a charlatan and a crook. He is a megalomaniac who craves the Presidency to fulfil his delusions of grandeur. Poilievre, on the surface, is someone who actually understands what being the Head of Government means and how it impacts the country he represents.

I think it would be just as hostile and frigid if the CPC is in the hot seat with a Trump presidency. Best case scenario is a Biden/Poilievre partnership based in mutual respect and a desire to work together.

 

[jackamela]

I think Poilievre may emulate Trump's style of politics, but I do not foresee them sharing the same kind of political ideals.

Trump is a charlatan and a crook. He is a megalomaniac who craves the Presidency to fulfil his delusions of grandeur. Poilievre, on the surface, is someone who actually understands what being the Head of Government means and how it impacts the country he represents.

I think it would be just as hostile and frigid if the CPC is in the hot seat with a Trump presidency. Best case scenario is a Biden/Poilievre partnership based in mutual respect and a desire to work together.

If you could stick to the topic, please.

I'm not interested in anyone's personal opinion of Trump, or Biden - or PP or JT, for that matter. There are plenty of other places you can go if that's your thing.

A narrow focus response on any potential impact on the CAF of what most people assume will be a new US President come January 2025 is all I'm asking for. Nothing else.

 

[GR66]

Do you think that equation would change if Poilievre becomes PM?

No really unless by some chance the writ drops soon and Trudeau is gone before a Trump presidency begins. There won't be the personal animosity that Trump would have with Trudeau but his opinion of what he expects from Canada wouldn't be any different.

 

[jackamela]

No really unless by some chance the writ drops soon and Trudeau is gone before a Trump presidency begins. There won't be the personal animosity that Trump would have with Trudeau but his opinion of what he expects from Canada wouldn't be any different.

Fair enough. I also get the impression Poilievre is mostly focussed on cutting spending across the board. I'm not sure if there are exceptions where he might actually increase spending on certain things (and, if so, whether the CAF could be such an exception), or how he might react to pressure to increase military spending. I don't think he has commented much on it.

I do think PP might push for more efficient spending - which would be very good for the CAF in my opinion.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

If you could stick to the topic, please.

I was on topic, my dude. You asked, I answered.

I'm not interested in anyone's personal opinion of Trump, or Biden - or PP or JT, for that matter. There are plenty of other places you can go if that's your thing.

Except I'm here debating politics, so no; I am exactly where I shall be.

Personalities dictate policies and working relationships between countries. Thats diplomacy. In turn, believing for a moment that personalities and politics will not have an impact on how the CAF is affected in a "New" presidency, you're either naive, uninformed, or guillable. But you do you.

A narrow focus response on any potential impact on the CAF of what most people assume will be a new US President come January 2025 is all I'm asking for. Nothing else.

Glad thats what you're asking for. I provided that in my response. The fact you cannot distill or comprehend it from my posts, I haven't the time or inclination to spell it out for you.

 

[brihard]

Wondering what peoples' opinion is on the (probable) next US President signalling that he will pressure the Canadian government to make big investments in the military and, presumably, ramp up numbers.

Not really interested in anyone's personal opinion on Trump - let's stick to reactions to what it means for the CAF and its members.

The potential impacts of a subsequent Trump presidency on CAF needs to be viewed holistically, including potential force employment. Might a hypothetical Trump administration push us to enlarge our forces and buy more kit? Potentially. There is also a very real risk that his kowtowing to authoritarians and autocrats may make it more likely that further imperialist intentions on Russia's part, or perhaps Chinese designs on the Philippines or Taiwan are less likely to be successfully deterred. The prospect for major conventional conflicts consequently increases, including in eastern Europe where we have forces stationed and committed to Article V defense of NATO. So while we might end up working to procure more kit, I'd say there's an increased chance of Canadian troops being killed in a conventional conflict. Maybe they'll have nicer kit to die in depending on how long that takes? Dunno.

Trump, if elected again, is quite unlikely to be a net stabilizing force for global security. An increasingly insecure world necessarily means increased hazard for those who must deploy to address it.

 

[Good2Golf]

Short of Article 5, we aren't doing anything against our will.

We’re already doing things against ‘our’ (PM & friends’) will (F35, NASAMS, P-8A, soon E-7….etc) and that’s under a Democrat administration.

For the OP’s hypothesis, I’d wager the CAF will keep on receiving things that the GoC ‘decides’ to provide them…TBH no matter who POTUS 47 is.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

View attachment 84435

We’re already doing things against ‘our’ (PM & friends’) will (F35, NASAMS, P-8A, soon E-7….etc) and that’s under a Democrat administration.

This is true, however, I would offer the funding model and timinelines for all of these projects will not satiate a GOP Administration headed by Trump.

For the OP’s hypothesis, I’d wager the CAF will keep on receiving things that the GoC ‘decides’ to provide them…TBH no matter who POTUS 47 is.

Agreed. Its a proud Canadian tradition for our government, of both political stripes, to solely provide for the CAF after our Allies point it out to them. Like someone reminding an owner that the guard dog does, in fact, need food and water every once and a while.

 

[Good2Golf]

This is true, however, I would offer the funding model and timinelines for all of these projects will not satiate a GOP Administration headed by Trump.

In the spirit of this thread, I think a POTUS 45/47 would potentially help Canada get closer to 2%

 

[rmc_wannabe]

In the spirit of this thread, I think a POTUS 45/47 would potentially help Canada get closer to 2%

Depending...

Remember that 45/47potential's personality rubbed Canadians the wrong way. The populace gets a say, especially if PP butters his bread on "working on behalf of Canadians."