And to some their political bias clouds the obvious historical lessons.Primarily that Russia has absolutely no scruples about attacking other sovereign nations; has made frequent comments about reestablishing and integrating sovereign nations that are now part of NATO; and regardless of the shape it's in, has the capacity to rebuild, reorganize and take further actions when it sees the opportunity.
A viable conventional defence throughout Europe is the best course of action to discourage further incursions and the possibility of an escalation to nuclear weapons.
As @brihard said, the historical lessons are there and obvious.
The War in Ukraine
- Thread starter Bruce Monkhouse
- Start date
QV
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FJAG, many of us understood that from the beginning. Shoveling our old equipment with a healthy dose of hope to the Ukr was not likely going to do anything except delay the inevitable and with far more destruction and casualties. But if one criticized that COA, some dolts question your loyalty.
Perhaps the objective is to bleed out Russia long term on the backs of dead Ukrainians. The problem is we keep hearing from our own side that the West's "cupboards are bare". Not sure who is bleeding out who at this point. Maybe that is disinformation to keep hope alive in the Russian hierarchy. Who knows.
Perhaps the objective is to bleed out Russia long term on the backs of dead Ukrainians. The problem is we keep hearing from our own side that the West's "cupboards are bare". Not sure who is bleeding out who at this point. Maybe that is disinformation to keep hope alive in the Russian hierarchy. Who knows.
Haggis
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Make no mistake, Russia is bleeding the west. How much Russia really has left in their war chest is anyone's guess. Over the past year and a bit many talking heads have warned that Russia is running out of bombs, missiles, arty, people, planes etc. Clearly, that's not the case as they continue to hold the Ukrainian forces at bay or are pushing them back, even slightly.
All the western military assistance, from ammo and hardware like HIMARS to F-16s to Leos and M1A1s is not winning this for Ukraine. It's simply a matter of time before Russia's final push results in a conquered Ukraine. For the west, the disaster will be a bunch of pulverised western equipment, which will then end up giving it's technological secrets to Russia and the Chinese, who are building up at a phenomenal rate, right before the next war starts in Asia.
Yeah, I make it sound bad - because it is.
Halifax Tar
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Man I'd love to have a beer and chat, but we agree so much it would be just a bunch of nodding and yups lol.
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The OSINT I read suggests that barrels remain the major limiting factor for Russian hull refurbishment on tanks and SPGs and that huge reductions in Russian stored equipment have occurred. All this with limited US support over the last 6 months. Looks like Europe is stepping up lately as far as finding artillery ammo if not all the funds to buy it yet.
I don’t know; I’m nowhere close to qualified to assess that. Those who are who I’ve followed seem completely unsure. We also don’t know with much confidence what Russia would define as victory at this point. Or what China, who are definitely pulling strings, would consider strategic victory or at least gaining strategic advantage.
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Disagree. Every time the Russian do make a concerted offensive effort, they get shredded. Just this past week they made a battalion size push outside Avdiivka and had to call it off after the loss of a dozen of the 36 tanks and 8 of 12 IFVs committed were lost.
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You ignore the Iranian infusion of drones and the several million rounds of artillery ammo NK provided.
If you look at what Russian is attacking with, they don’t have a ton more in the tank, they have come back to their large glide bombs to crate the front and Ukraine lacks enough AD to make them pay.
It could very easily it it was given timely and with proper support.
Other HIMARS and some Arty nothing given to Ukraine has been cutting edge. Nearly all the missiles have been end of life systems.
The issue about the cupboard being empty isn’t really true. It’s simply a narrative that many countries like to promote.
Yes several Western countries are low - because they are feeble weasels (see Canada) and don’t plan for the future or reality. But many NATO countries have a great deal of equipment and ordnance that could be provided with no significant issue wrt China and Taiwan.
FJAG
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FTFY.
It's a little easy to belittle Canada's contribution. It wasn't much, but then we don't have much on hand to give. Canada has committed some $13.3 Billion to Ukraine in equipment and services to Ukraine. That isn't chump change.
I think that your emphasis on bleeding out Russia and doing so on the backs of Ukrainians and delaying the inevitable is misplaced. You entirely gloss over the fact that the majority of Ukrainians don't want to live under a Russian dictatorship - again. They aren't fighting to be a screen for NATO. They are fighting for their autonomy. They are bleeding and dying to keep their country free.
And what exactly is the inevitable? That Ukraine can't push back? That the lost lands won't be recovered? That Russia will push all the way to Poland?
I won't question anyone's loyally when all they do is express their opinions. But I can certainly disagree with those opinions.
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So what does that say about the relative ability to produce new cannons vs new glide bombs?
If the Ukrainians are hitting strategic Russian targets with Piper Cubs why are we in the west spending hundreds of millions to build drones for the never never?
We have cheap solutions that we could be building in mass quantities today.
Crikey! Stick a booster on a million dollar Tomahawk.
Quirky
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A stripped and clapped out C172 in a barely flyable condition could probably make it from Kyiv to Moscow. Send in a few hundred with some explosives. Don’t assign targets, just make it rain. The US alone would have thousands of GA aircraft that need permanent retirement over the motherland..
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A mix of both is a better plan. The low tech ones won’t do much against a competent AD network- but Russia doesn’t have one of those.
China however…
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Does it really matter that there is a better plan if you don't have the tools to execute that plan?
If you can flood the field with low tech solutions before the high tech solutions show up you win.
