Trudeau Popularity - or not. Nanos research

[Fishbone Jones]

Toronto Star Tonda MacCharlesOttawa Bureau Chief -3 Feb 24

A former Canadian ambassador to Washington says Justin Trudeau should ditch the anti-Trump “MAGA Conservative” rhetoric directed at the Liberals’ Canadian political rivals.David MacNaughton, who cochaired the Ontario campaign for Trudeau’s 2015 election victory, says it’s neither a wise domestic political strategy nor is it smart for Canada-U.S. relations.

In an interview Friday, MacNaughton said the prime minister is taking a risk by being seen to take swipes at Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, in a U.S. presidential election year.MacNaughton — who Trudeau hailed as key to Canada’s successful renegotiation of NAFTA with the Trump administration — worries there could be “blowback” if Trump wins and decides to set his sights on Canada.

Taking indirect shots at Trump would make it a lot harder to fight against Trump’s promised 10 per cent tariffs on U.S. imports, or to persuade a new Trump administration that the Trudeau government is a trusted partner on defence and security, he suggested.“I would be trying to make sure that there weren’t any huge blowups in our relationship with the Americans between now and our (Canadian) election,” he added...Moreover, MacNaughton said there’s no indication that drawing such a contrast would be a winning electoral strategy for the Liberals here at home.

Public opinion research suggests a large percentage of Canadians feel the country is taking the wrong direction or that it’s time for a change in government, MacNaughton said. He drew a comparison to the electorate’s mood in 2015 when people “were tired of (Conservative prime minister) Stephen Harper. They wanted a change.”At that time, MacNaughton said, Trudeau was offered all kinds of advice on what kind of campaign to run.

The reality, however, was that the public mood was such that Trudeau “didn’t have to be spectacular, he just had to be a change from what Stephen Harper was,” he said.“Well, you know what? We’re almost in exactly the same situation.”Attacking Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre “by itself isn’t going to work anyway,” he said. “And secondly, trying to draw a comparison with Donald Trump … why would you run the risk?”

In MacNaughton's opinion, the bigger challenge for the Trudeau Liberals is to persuade Canadians that they understand the world has changed dramatically since their 2015 election, and even since the most recent election in 2021.
He said they need to demonstrate they understand the economic pain and anxieties that stem from a changed global order, and are prepared to make changes to how they govern — not that they will continue to do more of the same. He suggested if Harper had admitted to mistakes and promised to govern differently in 2015, it may have posed a "dilemma" for the Trudeau campaign back then.

The Liberals have announced a revival of what they call a “Team Canada” approach to getting ready for whoever wins the next U.S. election, but MacNaughton’s view, first reported by Politico, is that the Trudeau government should “do the strategy. You don’t talk strategy.”

When MacNaughton departed the ambassador post in 2019, Trudeau praised him as a “trusted adviser, friend, and counsellor … whose honesty, moderation, and wisdom were pivotal to Team Canada in our successful renegotiation of NAFTA.”
He said the reality now, even with a Democrat currently in the White House, is that it is a time of "increased isolationism and protectionism" and Canada is "vulnerable.”

“We need to be seen by the Americans as a trusted friend, ally, partner and, you know, right now, I don't think that feeling is as strong as it has been," he said. "And that's not just this government’s fault. That’s been going on for some time.”

MacNaughton has shared his view with senior Liberals, but is at a loss to explain why Trudeau — who has criticized Poilievre’s “ideologically driven MAGA Conservatives” in Parliament — thinks the attacks will work.
“I don’t understand it,” he said.

The Star has reported on polling data that also suggests Canadians are not persuaded by the Liberals' Trump-Poilievre comparisons.

The Conservatives did not respond Friday to a request for comment.
Conservative MP Randy Hoback, who has long worked on Canada-U.S. issues, recently said the Canada-U.S. relationship is too critical to be jeopardized in order to score “domestic political points.”

“Trudeau and his caucus must end their repeated jabs south of the border … His actions are hazardous to our economy and to our national security,” Hoback wrote in an online post.

Trudeau is not the only Canadian political leader to take shots at Trump.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, the Liberals’ governing ally in Parliament, last month warned that a Trump election victory would be bad for Canada. Trump is “openly running on an egomaniac, vengeance-filled motive to become the president, and it is incredibly disturbing to watch this," Singh said.

"Donald Trump frankly, is in a … world of his own. The things that he has done, the things that he says, the type of person he is, there is no other comparison to someone who is as bad for democracy, as bad for people, as bad for the planet as Donald Trump.

With the luck of the gods, Potato won't be PM when/ if Trump is sworn in.

 

[ArmyRick]

Any comparing of Trump and PP as being the same or similar is unwise. People aren’t stupid or blind.

If the LPC wants to be convincing they just need to highlight PP politics not Trump politics.

We do agree on some things

 

[The Bread Guy]

Toronto Star Tonda MacCharlesOttawa Bureau Chief -3 Feb 24

A former Canadian ambassador to Washington says Justin Trudeau should ditch the anti-Trump “MAGA Conservative” rhetoric directed at the Liberals’ Canadian political rivals.David MacNaughton, who cochaired the Ontario campaign for Trudeau’s 2015 election victory, says it’s neither a wise domestic political strategy nor is it smart for Canada-U.S. relations ...

More of the party faithful offering advice - will he listen?

 

[Good2Golf]

More of the party faithful offering advice - will he listen?

McNaughton, like Kinsella, is probably no longer on JT’s Christmas card list.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

More of the party faithful offering advice - will he listen?

His narcissism won't allow it

 

[The Bread Guy]

McNaughton, like Kinsella, is probably no longer on JT’s Christmas card list.

Likely true, for sure, but if not as hard-core as still-faithful, at least he's someone who might offer the benefit of the doubt - and STILL has advice re: "walk carefully, buddy." Tough tightrope to walk if Team Red decides to compare PP & POTUS45 - bad move overall, given the need to preserve the relationship with the U.S., but I don't think Team Red's captain has the chops to do subtle comms/relations.

 

[ModlrMike]

They are absolutely going to go the PP=POTUS45, it's the only tool they have. The risk though is that the torries are awash with money, and can get great advertising out there to situate PP's reasonableness in the public's mind long before the writ drops. PP just needs to continue with the straight forward, common "man" approach that is hard to defuse.

 

[Haggis]

The risk though is that the torries are awash with money, and can get great advertising out there to situate PP's reasonableness in the public's mind..

Can't advertise if you can't access a platform. There is no incentive for the MSM to air/print any CPC ads, except money, and Trudeau can easily cover that lost revenue with a bit more "Canadian content" funding.

Once the writ is dropped, the Canada Elections Act spells out the fairness obligations of CRTC regulated media.

 

[DBNSG]

Can't advertise if you can't access a platform. There is no incentive for the MSM to air/print any CPC ads, except money, and Trudeau can easily cover that lost revenue with a bit more "Canadian content" funding.

Once the writ is dropped, the Canada Elections Act spells out the fairness obligations of CRTC regulated media.

The usual anti Conservative coalition of Union and scared of Right wing groups do spend funds leading up to the Writ.
That will be a true sign that an Election is imminent.

 

[OldSolduer]

Who is the real strong one in the Biden administration - the brains and brawn behind Joe Biden? Just wondering.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Who is the real strong one in the Biden administration - the brains and brawn behind Joe Biden? Just wondering.

Not the VP:

Kamala Harris Is a Flop​

The underwhelming vice presidency of an unpopular former prosecutor has created a succession problem for the Democrats.​

Harris' Unpopularity Creates a Succession Problem for Democrats

 

[The Bread Guy]

Can't advertise if you can't access a platform. There is no incentive for the MSM to air/print any CPC ads, except money ...

If Team Blue wants to spend money advertising in the Globe & the Star, I suspect nobody's going to say "well, we won't take this because ..." I'm expecting more of this approach ...

... the torries are awash with money, and can get great advertising out there to situate PP's reasonableness in the public's mind long before the writ drops ...

As for this ...

... Trudeau can easily cover that lost revenue with a bit more "Canadian content" funding.

... my guess is new episodes of "Corner Gas" aren't going to draw a lot of new Team Red voters

 

[Rifleman62]

Danielle Smith causing Liberal and NDP outrage.​

 

[Good2Golf]

If Team Blue wants to spend money advertising in the Globe & the Star, I suspect nobody's going to say "well, we won't take this because ..."

Pretty sure that the sway demographic doesn’t have the Globe or Star high up on their info source list…

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Who is the real strong one in the Biden administration - the brains and brawn behind Joe Biden? Just wondering.

Obama?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Danielle Smith causing Liberal and NDP outrage.​

I do love the way she goes around lighting their hair on fire though.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Pretty sure that the sway demographic doesn’t have the Globe or Star high up on their info source list…

Then if there's no need to "preach to the converted" by advertising in Postmedia/Sun properties (bought and paid for status notwithstanding), I suspect all sorts of other media'll be happy to take CPC money for ads.

 

[RangerRay]

Pretty sure that the sway demographic doesn’t have the Globe or Star high up on their info source list…

I find the Globe much more balanced these days. I think this is where parties will find the persuadables.

Postmedia and the Star are playing to the choir, IMHO.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Danielle Smith causing Liberal and NDP outrage.​

Are these rules reasonable or terrible?

 

[The Bread Guy]

I find the Globe much more balanced these days. I think this is where parties will find the persuadables.

Postmedia and the Star are playing to the choir, IMHO.

And that's just on the legacy print side. Both Blue & Red commentators, former operators, have been complimenting media buys doing zackly this since late summer ....

... to situate PP's reasonableness in the public's mind long before the writ drops. PP just needs to continue with the straight forward, common "man" approach that is hard to defuse.

... so CPC $ is being spent on media (more on this here, here, here and here) - not to mention leveraging social media in a way that Team Red doesn't seem to be as good at right now.